Abstract
Outline of a School Enrollment Forecasting Model
Track: GIS for Administration, Planning and Policy
Author
This presentation outlines the framework of the K-12 public school enrollment forecasting model used by our organization, with emphasis on the use of the cohort component model for long term forecasts. We do not claim that our model is superior, but present it for discussion and as an introduction to those new to enrollment forecasting. Its main advantage for enrollment forecasting is that it enumerates the numbers of women of childbearing age, and births to these mothers, not simply the school age population. The results of the cohort model can be compared with population projections by local and state planning agencies. The main disadvantage is that it requires the user to project future birth and migration rates. We will discuss the application of the model, the use of GIS in developing the database, and will provide suggestions on viewing the crystal ball for birth and migration rates.
Richard Lycan
Portland State University
Mail Code PRC
Portland State University
Portland, Oregon 97207-0751
United States
Phone: 503-725-5158
E-mail: lycand@pdx.edu
Charles Rynerson
Portland State University
Mail Code PRC
Portland, Oregon 97207-0751
United States
Phone: 503-725-5157
E-mail: rynerson@pdx.edu