Abstract
Housing Based School Enrollment Forecasts
Track: Administration and Policy
Authors: Richard Lycan, Charles Rynerson
Methods used to forecast K-12 enrollment include: (1) cohort-component models, (2) grade progression models, and (3) housing based models, or a combination of the three models. One simple housing based approach is the school census where the district enumerates the numbers of school age and pre-school age children by household and tabulates these data by housing type. GIS more effectively allows us to link geocoded student data to the housing units in which they reside and to tabulate the numbers and types of students by housing characteristics detailed in assessors' tax-lot files. These data allow us to make inferences about the enrollment impacts of future housing construction. However, turnover and aging in place must also be taken into account. Examples from the Portland, Oregon region will be used to illustrate the housing based method.