The Metropolitan East Coast Climate Change Assessment GIS
U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability
and Change
Mark G. Becker
Abstract
This paper presents the use of GIS in the Metropolitan
East Coast Climate Assessment project.The
assessment looks at the potential impacts of climate change on a global
city - the 31 county region that comprises the greater New York City metropolitan
area. The project is focused on the potential consequences of climate variability
and change within six sectors; Coasts & Wetlands, Infrastructure, Water
Supply, Public Health, Energy, Decision Making.The
paper explores the integration of a variety of climate change data, demographic
predictions and cartographic files to visualize predicted effects of climate
change in the New York area.
What is the MEC Project?
The objective of the Climate Change and a Global
City: An Assessment of the
Metropolitan East Coast Region project is to derive
an assessment of the potential climate change impacts on a global city
- in this case the 31 county region that comprises the New York City metropolitan
area. This study comprises one of the regional components that contribute
to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of
Climate Variability and Change and is an application of state-of-the-art
climate change science to a set of linked sectoral assessment analyses
for the MetroEast Coast (MEC) region.
What is GIS?
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is a combination
of computer hardware, software, and data that let us store, create, and
analyze spatial data.What is spatial
data?Any information that is referenced
to a location is spatial data.For
example, house addresses, latitude and longitude or some other coordinate
system associates the data to a place on Earth or in space.Any
physical and cultural geographic features and their attributes can be displayed
on a GIS system if they have this geo-referencing.GIS
systems let us stack many different layers of information together and
ask questions about their relationships.In
a GIS we can create a digital map of an area using layers describing political
boundaries, roads, streets, wetlands, soil types, building footprints and
more.Once the map is created we
can use the GIS to ask questions such as, "how many wetlands are within
100 feet of the roads"?The ability
to create and update geographic information and interact with different
elements of a map is what makes GIS such a powerful tool for many different
applications.GIS is used in land
use planning, transportation planning environmental management, business
marketing and health and social services program planning and management
and education.
How was GIS was used in the MEC project?
The Center for International Earth Science Information
Network, (CIESIN) has developed and managed a Geographic Information System
(GIS) as a component of its partnership in the Metropolitan East Coast
Climate Change Assessment study.GIS
was used in the MEC project in three main areas:
-
Create a visual description of the study region for researchers and stakeholders
-
Assisting researchers in mapping the results of their studies
-
To help communicate the results of the MEC study to the general public
through the development of maps and images for a public access web site
http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/
-
Creation of an On-Line resource for students and educators who wish to
use the MEC data in their classroom studies
The Metropolitan East Coast GIS had played a valuable
role in assisting research participants in conducting their analysis and
visualizing their results.Fundamentally,
the GIS gives scientists and the public a detailed description of the physical
and social geography of the study region.More
importantly, the GIS helped us to map the magnitude and spatial distribution
of potential threats to the region's infrastructure, public health, water
supplies, coastal zones and wetland areas resulting from climate change.Publishing
the maps illustrating these potential threats on the Metropolitan East
Coast web site will greatly contribute to one of main goals of the projects,
increasing the public's awareness of global climate change issues.One
of the most interesting applications of the MEC GIS is a special Educator's
Package the delivers GIS data layers and a free GIS software program along
with a series of lesson plans for teachers and students to use in classroom
projects.
Data Set Inventory
The Metropolitan East
Coast (MEC) study region is a 31 county district comprising the greater
New York metropolitan area.We have
complied the following data layers for use in the MEC GIS:
§Tiger
Files 97 US Census Bureau:
Political
Boundaries, Roads, Landmarks, Water Bodies,
Streams,
and Demographic Information by Census Tract & Block
§Climate
Models from the CCS and Hadley Centers on Climate Change
§NYC
DEP Watershed Layers: Watershed Bounds, Reservoirs, Streams, Farms, Monitoring
Sites, 20' Contours, & Political Divisions
§Landsat
Thematic Mapper images of the New York region
§USGS
Digital Elevation Models
§USGS
1:250,000 Land Use Land Cover Data
§National
Wetland Inventory
§NJDEP
1:58,000 Land Use Classifications
§Digital
Ortho-Photo Quadrangles for New Jersey & Long Island
§NPA
Data Growth Projection Data
General Description Maps
The Metro East Coast GIS provided an easy way for
researchers and stakeholders in the project to understand the extent of
the study region and the physical and cultural geographic features of the
area.Digital maps were composed
showing the states and counties that make up the MEC region.Added
to this base map were layers to illustrate census geography, road and transportation
networks, cultural landmarks, major cities, water bodies and streams.In
addition to these map layers we were able to incorporate a series of satellite
images depicting the core urban center of the study region and the surrounding
suburban and rural areas.These satellites
images give a clear picture of the extent of vegetation coverage, urban
development and landforms throughout the region.A
unique set of images using satellite data created by Dr. Chris Small of
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory show thermal patterns in the MEC area.
Global Climate Model Maps
Researchers studying climate change have developed
computer models to predict the possible change in global temperature and
precipitation.The two most commonly
used models are from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis.For
more information on these research centers and their climate models visit
their websites at the following locations.
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis
Datasets are available from these centers that contains
point data with an x and y location and variables for temperature and precipitation
for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080.To
view these data as a map we created grid cells and then created a series
of thematic maps using the variables for the different years. For the Hadley
Center Model the grid cell size is3.75
degrees (long) x 2.5 degrees (lat).The
grid dimensions for the Canadian Centre model are 3.75 (long) x 3.71 (lat).Temperature
values are in degrees centigrade and precipitation is defined as percent
change
A series of maps created using these data include:
-
Hadley Global Temperature
-
Hadley Global Precipitation
-
Canadian Global Temperature
-
Canadian Global Precipitation
-
Hadley v. Canadian Temperature 2020, 2050, 2080
-
Hadley v. Canadian Precipitation 2020, 2050, 2080
Demographic Mapping
The US Census Bureau Provides a series of digital
geographic information layers known as the Topographically Integrated Geographic
Encoded and Referencing (TIGER) files.These
files include layers for roads, streams, political boundaries, landmarks
and census geography boundaries such as blocks, tracks and metropolitan
Statistical area (MSA's).We have
compiled the Census tracts for all the 31 county area of the MEC study
with the associated demographic variables to create a series of thematic
maps to illustrate social patterns throughout the region.
Using these data we created the following
demographics thematic maps:
§Population
Density Average Income
§Poverty
% living below the Poverty Line
§Average
Housing Value
§Buildings
built before 1940
On-line creation of thematic maps for any of other
the over 220 variables from the 1990 U.S. Census is possible using either
CIESIN's ddViewer program at (http://www.ciesin.org/interapps.html)
or by downloading the MEC Educators Package at (http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/)
Digital Elevation Models
To understand the potential effects of sea level
rise we have employed USGS Digital Elevation Models (DEM's).These
models depicting averaged elevation over a 30 square meter grid cell allow
us to see which coastal areas are most susceptible to increases in mean
sea-level elevation.The horizontal
accuracy of the data sets is between 5 to 10 feet.Using
Esri's ArcView Spatial Analyst software we created a hillshaded image of
the Metropolitan Region and derived an estimated 5-foot contour set for
the area and projected this layer to UTM NAD 27 to overlay with our other
data layers.
This DEM along with detailed information on transportation
features (roads, bridges, tunnels, shipping ports, and airports), and buildings
were put together to study the potential impacts of climate change on the
City's infrastructure.From this
analysis we created a series of maps showing the result of a query to the
DEM to color red all elevations between 0 and three feet.The
potential impacts to the area major airports, highways, and other infrastructure
elements can easily been seen.
Land Use Coverage Data
In the MEC GIS, we are using land use data derived
from satellites and arial photography to study the historic change in land
use/land cover for the region and to model the possible impacts of climate
change on these trends.In this study
we will be comparing the change in percentages of land use classification
by census tract over the past twenty years.For
the sections of the MEC region in New Jersey will are fortunate to have
Land Use classification layers at a scale of 1:58,000 for the years 1986
and 1997 enabling us to study the changes in land use/land cover over the
past ten years.The New Jersey Department
of Environmental Protection has provided these layers at no charge.
GIS Projects for Individual Sectors
Coastal Sector Maps
For the Coastal Sector we created a series of maps
to define the demographic make-up of population at risk from sea-level
rise.Six study areas were chosen
to review, Coney Island, Rockaway, the Battery, Westhampton, in New York
and Asbury Park and Sea Bright in New Jersey.
To create the maps we created five-foot contour intervals
from 7.5-minute quadrangle Digital Elevation Models and over laid the contours
on the Census tracts for the areas.The
Census tract boundaries are not very accurate.For
example, tracts that depict coastal areas very often extend well into the
ocean.The zero elevation contours
was assumed to be the base shoreline.A
considerable amount of editing the census tracts was needed to bring the
tracts into conformity with the shorelines.Three
thematic maps were generated for each site using the demographic variables
from the 1990 census, Population Per Square Mile, Average Household Income
and Average Housing Values.Contours
lines for the 5, 10 and 15-foot elevations were placed over the classified
census tracts.The resulting maps
give a sense of the social composition of populations living near the coasts
and most likely to be subjected to sea-level rise and increased frequency
and severity of coastal storm events.
Health Sector Maps
For the Public Health sector we have employed GIS
technology to compile data sets on several diseases and map their spatial
distribution. Maps for all the following have been created:
-
Heart Disease
-
Malignant Neoplasms
-
Cerebro-Vascular Disease
-
Pneumonia/Influenza
-
COPD
-
HIV
-
Asthma.
We are also are planning to use the GIS to map the
spatial and temporal correspondence between ground level ozone and asthma
rates.Maps will be created to show
the potential increases in these diseases based of environmental change
as predicted by internationally recognized Global Climate Change Models.
MEC Education Module
The MEC Educator's Pack is a package of GIS software,
datasets and lesson plans designed for educators who are interested in
using GIS technology to explore global climate change issues.
The
package includes a free GIS software program called ArcExplorer created
by Esri the world's leading GIS software developer.
ArcExplorer
is easy to use and comes with a user manual to help get you started.
The
datasets available includes much of the data used in the MEC project such
as the climate change models and the US Census Bureau's TIGER Files.
The
data is enough to get you started, however once you are familiar with the
GIS system you will be able to add new layer to you maps by creating your
own or by searching for new data layers on the Internet and downloading
them into your projects. Also provided are two lesson plans that use ArcExplorer
to view the data and produce a series of maps to study climate change predictions
in the MEC region.
The MEC Educator's
pack is available for free from the MEC web page at
http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu
or by CD upon request.
For additional
information please contact:
Center for International
Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN)
Columbia
Earth Institute
Lamont-Doherty
Earth Observatory
61 Route
9W
Palisades,
NY 10964
914-365-8988
http://www.ciesin.org
Contents
The MEC Educator's Package contains a series of
programs and datasets under the flowing directory structure:
ArcExplorer
aeclient - this is the free GIS software
program from Environmental Research Institute (Esri).Click
on this icon to start the install program.
arcexplorer_user_guide -An
introduction to and a tutorial on using ArcExplorer
For more information on ArcExplorer and all of Esri'sGIS
products and services go to their website at www.Esri.com
GIS_Data
Climate Models
-
Canadian - ccs258.xxx
- These five files are the shape file of the Canadian Center Model
-
Hadley - hsc258.xxx - These five files are the shape file of the Hadley
Center Model
Geo_Data
This directory contains a number of geographic data
layers to use in your projects including:
File Name
|
Description
|
31 County Metro Area.shp
|
Counties in the MEC Region
|
5_foot_metro_contours.shp
|
5 Foot Contours from DEMs for NYC area
|
airports.shp
|
Airports
|
county.shp
|
US Counties
|
ghospital.shp
|
US Government Hospitals
|
lalndmrk.shp
|
Landmarks
|
cities.shp
|
US Cities
|
TIGER
This directory contains a file called mec tracts.shp
that contains all the census tract boundaries for all the census tracts
with in the MEC region with the associated demographic variables.
Lesson_Plans
Under this directory you will find two sample lesson
plans giving you step by step instructions for using the GIS program and
data sets in your classroom.The
first lesson gives you instructions on creating maps using the climate
change predictive models from the Canadian and Hadley climate centers.The
second lesson looks at creating thematic maps using the 1990 census data
for the MEC region.
System Requirements
ArcExplorer will only run on a PC based platform
(sorry all you Mac people). Recommended system requirements are a Pentium
Chip and at least 16 MB RAM.
The entire Educator's Package uncompressed is approximately
60 Megabytes in size.
Lesson Plan for Middle School Science Class
1.) Lesson Plan One - Making Climate Models
with ArcExplorer
In this lesson we will use the data layers from
the Hadley and Canadian climate centers to create thematic maps illustrating
temperature and precipitation predictions for the years 2020, 2050, and
2080.We will make maps at both
the global scale and maps that are zoomed into the Metro East Coast region.After
we completing the maps we can print them out and use them to compare the
differences between the two models and as a reference for further explorations
investigating the scientific theories behind the predictions.
Step One:
Create a directory on your hard drive to install the
MEC Educator's Package.Download
the MEC Educators Pack into the new directory.Install
ArcExplorer by going to the directory Mec_Educators_Pack/ArcExplorer/ and
click on the aeclient.exe file.This
will start the install process.Take
all the default values as the install process executes.After
the install is complete you will have to restart your computer.Once
the computer is running again, you will see a new icon on your desktop
for ArcExplorer.Click on the Icon
to start the program.
Step Two:
Start a project by moving your cursor to the File
menu and click on File/New ArcExplorer.
Step Three:
Add the data layers to your project:
Click on the Theme menu and the add theme option (or
click on the plus sign icon at the top of the window) and navigate to where
the country.shp file is stored ( C:/MEC GIS Viewer/GIS_Data/Geo_Data/country.shp)hcs.shp,
ccs.shp, country.shp, 31cnty_geoshp.shp.Select
these layer and click on the add theme button.
Step Four:
Create a Thematic Map of the Hadley climate model
showing Temperature Predictions for the year 2020.
-
Make the hcs258.shp visible
-
Double click on the layer name hsc258.shp to open up the Theme Properties
Dialogue Box
-
Under the Classification Options on the left side of the
box choose Class Breaks
-
Choose the classify option
-
Next under the Numeric Field drop down list choose T20S
-
Set the number of classes to 6
-
Create a new color ramp by double clicking on the start color
From the new color pallet
window select a light color blue for your start color and click the OK
button.Click on the End color and
choose a bright Red color and click OK.Then
click on the OK button on the lower right of the dialogue
box.
-
We now have a layer of cells colored by the one of the values in the database. In
this case the values of the cells are predicted change in temperature in
degrees Centigrade for the year 2020.
-
Now lets make visible the country boundaries layers so we have a better
understanding of were the cells are located. Left
click on the check box nest to the county file to make the theme visible.
-
Now we must change the fill pattern to transparent so that only the country
boarders will bee seen. Double
click on the Country file name on the left side of the ArcExplorer window
to open the Theme Dialogue Box. At
the center of the Box you will see the option to change the color, style,
and the size of the symbols. From
the style option click on the drop down box and choose the Transparent
option. If
you wish to change the color of the outline select Other
symbol properties and from the new window that appears change the line
color. Click the OK
button at the button of the Theme Properties Dialogue Box.
-
Now use your pan and zoom tools to explore different regions.
-
When you are ready to print out the map go to the File option
on the menu bar and choose the print option.
-
Now make maps showing temperature changes for the years 2050 and 2080. To
do this, reclassify the grid using the T50S and the T80S variables. Printout
each of these maps. Next make
a series of maps showing predicted precipitation change using the variables
P20S, P50S or P80S.
-
Save your project by going to File/Save Project
Step Six:
In this next step we will add the boundaries of the
31 counties that make up the Metropolitan Climate study region to take
a closer look at what the predicted changes mean for the greater Metropolitan
New York region.
2.)Make
the theme 31cnty_geoshp.shp visible.
3.)Change
the fill pattern to Transparent
4.)Classify
the theme hsc258.shp to the temperature variables T20S
5.)Zoom
into the new 31cnty_geoshp.shp theme
6.)How
much does the model predict that the temperature will change?
7.)Now
do the classification for the other years 1050, and 2080 and note the predicted
changes
8.)Now
do the same for the predicted precipitation changes.
9.)Save
your project.
10.)Print
out some of your maps.
For the teacher:
This lesson is design to get students familiar with
using the ArcExplorer program and the data sets.Once
students are comfortable with using the program you a\can expand you explorations.Have
students create and compare maps using Hadley and Canadian data sets.Students
can do research on the methods behind the development of the models to
find out why they differ.Have students
discuss some of the potential flaws in the models especially try to draw
out the limitations of applying a global model to a relatively small area
such as the 31 county Metro Region.These
data and the ArcExplorer program can be a great tool for the study of climate
change.Have students discuss what
other data layers would be useful to bring into the project.See
if you can have them find some of these layers on the Internet and use
them in their projects.
2.) Lesson Plan Two - Demographic Thematic
Mapping
In this lesson we will use demographic information
created by the U.S. Census Bureau and GIS file describing the census tracts
for the MEC region.
Included in the
MEC Educators Package is a GIS file called
MEC Tracts.shp
that contains all the census tracts for the MEC region with an attached
database containing over 200 demographic variables on age, ethnicity, income,
employment and other categories.
We
will use this file to create color-coded maps to display the spatial distribution
of these variables. For more information on census geography visit the
bureau's web site at (
http://www.census.gov/).
Step One:
Create a directory on your hard drive to install the
MEC Educator's Package.Download
the MEC Educators Pack into the new directory.Install
ArcExplorer by going to the directory Mec_Educators_Pack/ArcExplorer/ and
click on the aeclient.exe file.This
will start the install process.Take
all the default values as the install process executes.After
the install is complete you will have to restart your computer.Once
the computer is running again, you will see a new icon on your desktop
for ArcExplorer.Click on the Icon
to start the program.
Step Two:
Start a project by moving your cursor to the File
menu and click on File/New ArcExplorer.
Step Three:
Add the data layers to your project:
Click on the Theme menu and the add theme option (or
click on the plus sign icon at the top of the window) and navigate to where
the MEC Tracts.shp file is stored ( C:/MEC GIS Viewer/GIS_Data/Geo_Data/TIGER/Mec
Tracts.shp).Select the layer and
click on the add theme button.
Step Four:
2.)Double
click on the layer name MEC Tracts.shp to open up the Theme
Properties Dialogue Box
3.)Under
the Classification Options on the left side of the box choose
Class
Breaks
4.)Choose
the classify option
5.)Under
the drop down list you will see the 200+ demographic variables that you
can use for your mapping.Choose
the variable AVGHHINC to map the average house hold income for the
MEC region
6.)Set
the number of classes to 6
7.)Create
a new color ramp by double clicking on the start color
8.)From
the new color pallet window select a light yellow for your start color
and click the OK button.Click
on the End color and choose a bright Red color and click OK.Then
click on the OK button on the lower right of the dialogue
box.
9.)We
now have a layer of cells colored by one of the values in the database
10.)Now
try adding some of the other layers that are available under the Geo Data
Folder such as airports, hospitals, landmarks, and cities.
11.)Print
out your maps using the print option from the file menu.
For the teacher
Demographic maps can supplement a great many lessons
from social studies to mathematics.Try
combining the demographic information with the climate change prediction
data and making hypothesis on impacts of climate change on the region.Math
teachers can use the data to discuss different ways to classify and display
large datasets.If you happen to
live in the MEC region you will find students are very excited to use the
data to map their neighborhood.The
maps you create using these data can become a springboard for group discussions
on politics, economics, land use planning, or science and public policy.We
hope you will enjoy using the materials in the MEC Educators Package and
that it will lead you to many rewarding educational experiences.