The Metropolitan East Coast Climate Change Assessment GIS

U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change

 

Mark G. Becker

 

Abstract

This paper presents the use of GIS in the Metropolitan East Coast Climate Assessment project.The assessment looks at the potential impacts of climate change on a global city - the 31 county region that comprises the greater New York City metropolitan area. The project is focused on the potential consequences of climate variability and change within six sectors; Coasts & Wetlands, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, Energy, Decision Making.The paper explores the integration of a variety of climate change data, demographic predictions and cartographic files to visualize predicted effects of climate change in the New York area.

What is the MEC Project?

The objective of the Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the
Metropolitan East Coast Region project is to derive an assessment of the potential climate change impacts on a global city - in this case the 31 county region that comprises the New York City metropolitan area. This study comprises one of the regional components that contribute to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and is an application of state-of-the-art climate change science to a set of linked sectoral assessment analyses for the MetroEast Coast (MEC) region.

 

What is GIS?

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is a combination of computer hardware, software, and data that let us store, create, and analyze spatial data.What is spatial data?Any information that is referenced to a location is spatial data.For example, house addresses, latitude and longitude or some other coordinate system associates the data to a place on Earth or in space.Any physical and cultural geographic features and their attributes can be displayed on a GIS system if they have this geo-referencing.GIS systems let us stack many different layers of information together and ask questions about their relationships.In a GIS we can create a digital map of an area using layers describing political boundaries, roads, streets, wetlands, soil types, building footprints and more.Once the map is created we can use the GIS to ask questions such as, "how many wetlands are within 100 feet of the roads"?The ability to create and update geographic information and interact with different elements of a map is what makes GIS such a powerful tool for many different applications.GIS is used in land use planning, transportation planning environmental management, business marketing and health and social services program planning and management and education.

How was GIS was used in the MEC project?

The Center for International Earth Science Information Network, (CIESIN) has developed and managed a Geographic Information System (GIS) as a component of its partnership in the Metropolitan East Coast Climate Change Assessment study.GIS was used in the MEC project in three main areas:
  1. Create a visual description of the study region for researchers and stakeholders
  2. Assisting researchers in mapping the results of their studies
  3. To help communicate the results of the MEC study to the general public through the development of maps and images for a public access web site http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/
  4. Creation of an On-Line resource for students and educators who wish to use the MEC data in their classroom studies
The Metropolitan East Coast GIS had played a valuable role in assisting research participants in conducting their analysis and visualizing their results.Fundamentally, the GIS gives scientists and the public a detailed description of the physical and social geography of the study region.More importantly, the GIS helped us to map the magnitude and spatial distribution of potential threats to the region's infrastructure, public health, water supplies, coastal zones and wetland areas resulting from climate change.Publishing the maps illustrating these potential threats on the Metropolitan East Coast web site will greatly contribute to one of main goals of the projects, increasing the public's awareness of global climate change issues.One of the most interesting applications of the MEC GIS is a special Educator's Package the delivers GIS data layers and a free GIS software program along with a series of lesson plans for teachers and students to use in classroom projects.

Data Set Inventory

The Metropolitan East Coast (MEC) study region is a 31 county district comprising the greater New York metropolitan area.We have complied the following data layers for use in the MEC GIS:

§Tiger Files 97 US Census Bureau:

Political Boundaries, Roads, Landmarks, Water Bodies,

Streams, and Demographic Information by Census Tract & Block

§Climate Models from the CCS and Hadley Centers on Climate Change

§NYC DEP Watershed Layers: Watershed Bounds, Reservoirs, Streams, Farms, Monitoring Sites, 20' Contours, & Political Divisions

§Landsat Thematic Mapper images of the New York region

§USGS Digital Elevation Models

§USGS 1:250,000 Land Use Land Cover Data

§National Wetland Inventory

§NJDEP 1:58,000 Land Use Classifications

§Digital Ortho-Photo Quadrangles for New Jersey & Long Island

§NPA Data Growth Projection Data

 

General Description Maps

The Metro East Coast GIS provided an easy way for researchers and stakeholders in the project to understand the extent of the study region and the physical and cultural geographic features of the area.Digital maps were composed showing the states and counties that make up the MEC region.Added to this base map were layers to illustrate census geography, road and transportation networks, cultural landmarks, major cities, water bodies and streams.In addition to these map layers we were able to incorporate a series of satellite images depicting the core urban center of the study region and the surrounding suburban and rural areas.These satellites images give a clear picture of the extent of vegetation coverage, urban development and landforms throughout the region.A unique set of images using satellite data created by Dr. Chris Small of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory show thermal patterns in the MEC area.

Global Climate Model Maps

Researchers studying climate change have developed computer models to predict the possible change in global temperature and precipitation.The two most commonly used models are from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis.For more information on these research centers and their climate models visit their websites at the following locations.
 
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
http://www.meto.govt.uk/sec5/sec5pg1.html
Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis
http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/

Datasets are available from these centers that contains point data with an x and y location and variables for temperature and precipitation for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080.To view these data as a map we created grid cells and then created a series of thematic maps using the variables for the different years. For the Hadley Center Model the grid cell size is3.75 degrees (long) x 2.5 degrees (lat).The grid dimensions for the Canadian Centre model are 3.75 (long) x 3.71 (lat).Temperature values are in degrees centigrade and precipitation is defined as percent change

 

A series of maps created using these data include:

Demographic Mapping

The US Census Bureau Provides a series of digital geographic information layers known as the Topographically Integrated Geographic Encoded and Referencing (TIGER) files.These files include layers for roads, streams, political boundaries, landmarks and census geography boundaries such as blocks, tracks and metropolitan Statistical area (MSA's).We have compiled the Census tracts for all the 31 county area of the MEC study with the associated demographic variables to create a series of thematic maps to illustrate social patterns throughout the region.

Using these data we created the following demographics thematic maps:

§Population Density Average Income
§Poverty % living below the Poverty Line

§Average Housing Value

§Buildings built before 1940

On-line creation of thematic maps for any of other the over 220 variables from the 1990 U.S. Census is possible using either CIESIN's ddViewer program at (http://www.ciesin.org/interapps.html) or by downloading the MEC Educators Package at (http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/)

Digital Elevation Models

To understand the potential effects of sea level rise we have employed USGS Digital Elevation Models (DEM's).These models depicting averaged elevation over a 30 square meter grid cell allow us to see which coastal areas are most susceptible to increases in mean sea-level elevation.The horizontal accuracy of the data sets is between 5 to 10 feet.Using Esri's ArcView Spatial Analyst software we created a hillshaded image of the Metropolitan Region and derived an estimated 5-foot contour set for the area and projected this layer to UTM NAD 27 to overlay with our other data layers.

This DEM along with detailed information on transportation features (roads, bridges, tunnels, shipping ports, and airports), and buildings were put together to study the potential impacts of climate change on the City's infrastructure.From this analysis we created a series of maps showing the result of a query to the DEM to color red all elevations between 0 and three feet.The potential impacts to the area major airports, highways, and other infrastructure elements can easily been seen.

Land Use Coverage Data

In the MEC GIS, we are using land use data derived from satellites and arial photography to study the historic change in land use/land cover for the region and to model the possible impacts of climate change on these trends.In this study we will be comparing the change in percentages of land use classification by census tract over the past twenty years.For the sections of the MEC region in New Jersey will are fortunate to have Land Use classification layers at a scale of 1:58,000 for the years 1986 and 1997 enabling us to study the changes in land use/land cover over the past ten years.The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection has provided these layers at no charge.

GIS Projects for Individual Sectors

Coastal Sector Maps

For the Coastal Sector we created a series of maps to define the demographic make-up of population at risk from sea-level rise.Six study areas were chosen to review, Coney Island, Rockaway, the Battery, Westhampton, in New York and Asbury Park and Sea Bright in New Jersey.

To create the maps we created five-foot contour intervals from 7.5-minute quadrangle Digital Elevation Models and over laid the contours on the Census tracts for the areas.The Census tract boundaries are not very accurate.For example, tracts that depict coastal areas very often extend well into the ocean.The zero elevation contours was assumed to be the base shoreline.A considerable amount of editing the census tracts was needed to bring the tracts into conformity with the shorelines.Three thematic maps were generated for each site using the demographic variables from the 1990 census, Population Per Square Mile, Average Household Income and Average Housing Values.Contours lines for the 5, 10 and 15-foot elevations were placed over the classified census tracts.The resulting maps give a sense of the social composition of populations living near the coasts and most likely to be subjected to sea-level rise and increased frequency and severity of coastal storm events.

Health Sector Maps

For the Public Health sector we have employed GIS technology to compile data sets on several diseases and map their spatial distribution. Maps for all the following have been created:
We are also are planning to use the GIS to map the spatial and temporal correspondence between ground level ozone and asthma rates.Maps will be created to show the potential increases in these diseases based of environmental change as predicted by internationally recognized Global Climate Change Models.

MEC Education Module

The MEC Educator's Pack is a package of GIS software, datasets and lesson plans designed for educators who are interested in using GIS technology to explore global climate change issues.The package includes a free GIS software program called ArcExplorer created by Esri the world's leading GIS software developer.ArcExplorer is easy to use and comes with a user manual to help get you started. The datasets available includes much of the data used in the MEC project such as the climate change models and the US Census Bureau's TIGER Files.The data is enough to get you started, however once you are familiar with the GIS system you will be able to add new layer to you maps by creating your own or by searching for new data layers on the Internet and downloading them into your projects. Also provided are two lesson plans that use ArcExplorer to view the data and produce a series of maps to study climate change predictions in the MEC region.The MEC Educator's pack is available for free from the MEC web page at http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu or by CD upon request.For additional information please contact:

Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN)

Columbia Earth Institute

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

61 Route 9W

Palisades, NY 10964

914-365-8988

http://www.ciesin.org

Contents

The MEC Educator's Package contains a series of programs and datasets under the flowing directory structure:

 

ArcExplorer

aeclient - this is the free GIS software program from Environmental Research Institute (Esri).Click on this icon to start the install program.

arcexplorer_user_guide -An introduction to and a tutorial on using ArcExplorer

For more information on ArcExplorer and all of Esri'sGIS products and services go to their website at www.Esri.com

GIS_Data

Climate Models

Geo_Data

This directory contains a number of geographic data layers to use in your projects including:

 
File Name
Description
31 County Metro Area.shp
Counties in the MEC Region
5_foot_metro_contours.shp
5 Foot Contours from DEMs for NYC area
airports.shp
Airports
county.shp
US Counties 
ghospital.shp
US Government Hospitals
lalndmrk.shp
Landmarks
cities.shp
US Cities

TIGER

This directory contains a file called mec tracts.shp that contains all the census tract boundaries for all the census tracts with in the MEC region with the associated demographic variables.

Lesson_Plans

Under this directory you will find two sample lesson plans giving you step by step instructions for using the GIS program and data sets in your classroom.The first lesson gives you instructions on creating maps using the climate change predictive models from the Canadian and Hadley climate centers.The second lesson looks at creating thematic maps using the 1990 census data for the MEC region.

System Requirements

ArcExplorer will only run on a PC based platform (sorry all you Mac people). Recommended system requirements are a Pentium Chip and at least 16 MB RAM.
The entire Educator's Package uncompressed is approximately 60 Megabytes in size.

Lesson Plan for Middle School Science Class

1.) Lesson Plan One - Making Climate Models with ArcExplorer

In this lesson we will use the data layers from the Hadley and Canadian climate centers to create thematic maps illustrating temperature and precipitation predictions for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080.We will make maps at both the global scale and maps that are zoomed into the Metro East Coast region.After we completing the maps we can print them out and use them to compare the differences between the two models and as a reference for further explorations investigating the scientific theories behind the predictions.

Step One:

Create a directory on your hard drive to install the MEC Educator's Package.Download the MEC Educators Pack into the new directory.Install ArcExplorer by going to the directory Mec_Educators_Pack/ArcExplorer/ and click on the aeclient.exe file.This will start the install process.Take all the default values as the install process executes.After the install is complete you will have to restart your computer.Once the computer is running again, you will see a new icon on your desktop for ArcExplorer.Click on the Icon to start the program.

Step Two:

Start a project by moving your cursor to the File menu and click on File/New ArcExplorer.

Step Three:

Add the data layers to your project:

Click on the Theme menu and the add theme option (or click on the plus sign icon at the top of the window) and navigate to where the country.shp file is stored ( C:/MEC GIS Viewer/GIS_Data/Geo_Data/country.shp)hcs.shp, ccs.shp, country.shp, 31cnty_geoshp.shp.Select these layer and click on the add theme button.

Step Four:

Create a Thematic Map of the Hadley climate model showing Temperature Predictions for the year 2020.

  1. Make the hcs258.shp visible
  2. Double click on the layer name hsc258.shp to open up the Theme Properties Dialogue Box
  3. Under the Classification Options on the left side of the box choose Class Breaks
  4. Choose the classify option
  5. Next under the Numeric Field drop down list choose T20S
  6. Set the number of classes to 6
  7. Create a new color ramp by double clicking on the start color
From the new color pallet window select a light color blue for your start color and click the OK button.Click on the End color and choose a bright Red color and click OK.Then click on the OK button on the lower right of the dialogue box.
  1. We now have a layer of cells colored by the one of the values in the database. In this case the values of the cells are predicted change in temperature in degrees Centigrade for the year 2020.
  2. Now lets make visible the country boundaries layers so we have a better understanding of were the cells are located. Left click on the check box nest to the county file to make the theme visible.
  3. Now we must change the fill pattern to transparent so that only the country boarders will bee seen. Double click on the Country file name on the left side of the ArcExplorer window to open the Theme Dialogue Box. At the center of the Box you will see the option to change the color, style, and the size of the symbols. From the style option click on the drop down box and choose the Transparent option. If you wish to change the color of the outline select Other symbol properties and from the new window that appears change the line color. Click the OK button at the button of the Theme Properties Dialogue Box.
  4. Now use your pan and zoom tools to explore different regions.
  5. When you are ready to print out the map go to the File option on the menu bar and choose the print option.
  6. Now make maps showing temperature changes for the years 2050 and 2080. To do this, reclassify the grid using the T50S and the T80S variables. Printout each of these maps. Next make a series of maps showing predicted precipitation change using the variables P20S, P50S or P80S.
  7. Save your project by going to File/Save Project
Step Six:

In this next step we will add the boundaries of the 31 counties that make up the Metropolitan Climate study region to take a closer look at what the predicted changes mean for the greater Metropolitan New York region.

2.)Make the theme 31cnty_geoshp.shp visible.

3.)Change the fill pattern to Transparent

4.)Classify the theme hsc258.shp to the temperature variables T20S

5.)Zoom into the new 31cnty_geoshp.shp theme

6.)How much does the model predict that the temperature will change?

7.)Now do the classification for the other years 1050, and 2080 and note the predicted changes

8.)Now do the same for the predicted precipitation changes.

9.)Save your project.

10.)Print out some of your maps.

For the teacher:

This lesson is design to get students familiar with using the ArcExplorer program and the data sets.Once students are comfortable with using the program you a\can expand you explorations.Have students create and compare maps using Hadley and Canadian data sets.Students can do research on the methods behind the development of the models to find out why they differ.Have students discuss some of the potential flaws in the models especially try to draw out the limitations of applying a global model to a relatively small area such as the 31 county Metro Region.These data and the ArcExplorer program can be a great tool for the study of climate change.Have students discuss what other data layers would be useful to bring into the project.See if you can have them find some of these layers on the Internet and use them in their projects.

2.) Lesson Plan Two - Demographic Thematic Mapping

In this lesson we will use demographic information created by the U.S. Census Bureau and GIS file describing the census tracts for the MEC region.Included in the MEC Educators Package is a GIS file called MEC Tracts.shp that contains all the census tracts for the MEC region with an attached database containing over 200 demographic variables on age, ethnicity, income, employment and other categories.We will use this file to create color-coded maps to display the spatial distribution of these variables. For more information on census geography visit the bureau's web site at (http://www.census.gov/).

Step One:

Create a directory on your hard drive to install the MEC Educator's Package.Download the MEC Educators Pack into the new directory.Install ArcExplorer by going to the directory Mec_Educators_Pack/ArcExplorer/ and click on the aeclient.exe file.This will start the install process.Take all the default values as the install process executes.After the install is complete you will have to restart your computer.Once the computer is running again, you will see a new icon on your desktop for ArcExplorer.Click on the Icon to start the program.

Step Two:

Start a project by moving your cursor to the File menu and click on File/New ArcExplorer.

Step Three:

Add the data layers to your project:

Click on the Theme menu and the add theme option (or click on the plus sign icon at the top of the window) and navigate to where the MEC Tracts.shp file is stored ( C:/MEC GIS Viewer/GIS_Data/Geo_Data/TIGER/Mec Tracts.shp).Select the layer and click on the add theme button.

Step Four:

2.)Double click on the layer name MEC Tracts.shp to open up the Theme Properties Dialogue Box

3.)Under the Classification Options on the left side of the box choose Class Breaks

4.)Choose the classify option

5.)Under the drop down list you will see the 200+ demographic variables that you can use for your mapping.Choose the variable AVGHHINC to map the average house hold income for the MEC region

6.)Set the number of classes to 6

7.)Create a new color ramp by double clicking on the start color

8.)From the new color pallet window select a light yellow for your start color and click the OK button.Click on the End color and choose a bright Red color and click OK.Then click on the OK button on the lower right of the dialogue box.

9.)We now have a layer of cells colored by one of the values in the database

10.)Now try adding some of the other layers that are available under the Geo Data Folder such as airports, hospitals, landmarks, and cities.

11.)Print out your maps using the print option from the file menu.

For the teacher

Demographic maps can supplement a great many lessons from social studies to mathematics.Try combining the demographic information with the climate change prediction data and making hypothesis on impacts of climate change on the region.Math teachers can use the data to discuss different ways to classify and display large datasets.If you happen to live in the MEC region you will find students are very excited to use the data to map their neighborhood.The maps you create using these data can become a springboard for group discussions on politics, economics, land use planning, or science and public policy.We hope you will enjoy using the materials in the MEC Educators Package and that it will lead you to many rewarding educational experiences.