Lucas Musewe

Spatial Data Analysis Of Risk Factors For Infant Health In Allegheny County, Pennsylvania

Abstract

This paper presents the effort to apply geography in the analysis of health inequality. The main focus of this paper is the estimation of spatial models which incorporate both the community level and individual level factors that can be used to determine high risk communities in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania as defined by low birth weight and lead poisoning. The models are based on the observation of 499 contiguous census tracts within municipalities in Allegheny County. The use of spatial data analysis is intended to enhance the understanding of how socioeconomic and demographic characteristics differentially influence the spatial distribution of birth outcomes by neighborhoods.

Introduction

This paper is one of the many attempts that have been made, particularly in public health research, to apply geography in the analysis of health inequality. Review of the literature reveals that there has been an intensive debate to clarify whether there is a place for geography in the analysis of health inequality.  The debate is about the interpretation of the impact of space and place on health inequality, which is liable to more than one interpretation.  Curtis and Jones (1998) explored this debate in detail and they concluded that geography does have a place in our understanding of inequalities in the health experience of individual and communities despite the fact that theoretical debate regarding the possible impact of space and place on health inequality may be liable to more than one interpretation.  However, they suggested that contextual effects associated with place and space, which might be quite complex, be considered together with other more individual theories about the processes and explanations relevant to health variation.

Normally, the analysis of geographical health variation involves the ideas of both space and place.  Space indicates the extent in which events or phenomena are distributed.  Space can be referred to as both the medium and outcome of social relations.  Thus, suggesting social significance and is socially constructed.  According to Kearns and Joseph (1993), groups in society, which are most socially separate, are, in most cases, spatially isolated in their residential distribution.  Space can also be implicated in social exclusion.

A place may be referred to as a location.  For instance, in geometric space it may be identified by means of grid coordinates denoting a certain position.  It may also be positioned in a system of spatial organization, such as a district situated in the administrative geography of a county.  Conceptually, a place may include the idea of a locale, a specific setting in which social relations are constituted.  More importantly, a sense of place, which refers to the meaning, intention, felt value and significance that individuals or groups give to particular places, should be considered.  Curtis and Jones (1998) points out that this perspective is often emphasized in cultural and humanistic approaches in geography.  The relationship between space, place and time is also important.  Geographic perspectives view human interaction in time space.
 

Compositional and Contextual effects
 

Spatial variations in health may be interpreted in different ways and it is suggested that we distinguish both conceptually and empirically between compositional effects and contextual effects.  Compositional effects arise from the varying distribution of types of people whose individual characteristics influence their health.  A purely compositional interpretation of geographical health variation might imply that similar types of people will have similar health experience, no matter where they live.  The problem of this kind of interpretation is the emphasis of ecological fallacy, whereby characteristics of aggregated regional populations might be used to generate inaccurate assumptions about individuals in the population. Curtis and Jones (1998) points out that researchers have given less value to ecological studies than to studies based on individual data due to this problem.  On the other hand, an overemphasis on individuals as the most useful unit of analysis may result in problems associated with the atomistic fallacy, whereby one may overlook or misinterpret effects, which can better be understood at the level of house-hold, neighborhoods or regions.  Schwartz (1994) indicates that research needs to consider ecological variables in order to understand the structural, contextual and sociological effects on public health.

The contextual effects operate where the health experience of an individual depends partly on the social and physical environment in the area where they live.  This type of effect would cause people with similar individual attributes to have different health status from one part of the country to another.  Consequently, the debate about compositional and contextual effect does suggest that ecological information is important to our understanding of health variation, not merely as a substitute for individual data, but also as a means of testing for the combined effects of compositional and contextual influences.

Contextual Variation in Health

The contextual variation in health can be explained in terms of the ecological landscape and its importance for varying exposure to health risks due to factors such as environmental pollution, climate, risk of accidental injury or death, or housing quality which may invoke community-level measurements.

The notion of community-level measurement is established on the premise that factors operating at the level of communities may affect individual-level health outcomes.  For instance, certain geographic factors operating at the level of communities may profoundly affect infant health quite independently from maternal factors.  Such factors may include environmental pollution, geographical distance to a health care facility, etc.  It is also known that low birth weight, high infant mortality and other infant health problems tend to be concentrated in certain geographical areas, like towns or neighborhoods.  For example, the study conducted by Roberts (1997) to examine the neighborhood social environments and the distribution of low birthweight in Chicago suggested that several community characteristics associated with poverty are negatively associated with low birthweight.
 

The neighborhoods or communities that people live have structural differences, which can significantly influence health outcome.  This structural difference is believed to have come about as a result of the de-industrialization of the U.S. economy, the shift of jobs from cities to suburbs, and the flight of minority middle-class families from the inner cities that led to severe social dislocations in some urban neighborhoods (Wilson, 1987).   This phenomenon left some communities lacking the institutions, resources, and role models necessary for success in a post-industrial society.  During the past several decades, poverty in the United States has become spatially concentrated in certain neighborhoods especially those in the urban area, and clustered with other indicators of disadvantage.

Neighborhoods as Spatial Units of Analysis

Conceptually, neighborhoods and communities are the immediate social context in which individuals and families interact and engage with the institutions and societal agents that regulate and control access to community opportunity structures and resources.  Neighborhoods are spatial units, associational networks, and perceived environments.  A key issue in research on neighborhoods and communities as contexts for development is how to conceptualize and measure the geographic and/or social units used to define and circumscribe them.  Insofar as neighborhood has a geographical referent, its meaning depends on context and function.  The relevant units vary by behavior and domain, and they depend on the outcome or process or interest (Furstenberg 1993).  For some purposes, the relevant neighborhood is the block on which an individual or family resides; for other purposes, it is the group of blocks immediately surrounding the residence; for still others, it encompasses a wide physical area that includes shopping areas, schools, and community facilities.  The boundaries of neighborhoods and communities as social areas defined by interaction patterns also vary, depending on the object of interest.   Despite the elusiveness and geographical imprecision of the neighborhoods concept, research indicates that neighborhoods operate as significant constraints on parents approaches to and strategies of family management (Furstenberg 1993) and on children’s and adolscents’ economic and social paths.
 

According to Brooks-Gunn et al (1997), research on neighborhood and community influences on child development has been hampered by the absence of data combining information at the individual, family, and neighborhood/community levels.  The measures that are typically available in studies of neighborhood contextual effects, such as tract-level census data, are relatively remote from perception and action, and therefore make strong linkages between neighborhood characteristics and outcomes of the inner-city poor unlikely.  More proximal characteristics of the neighborhood, at the level of its social organization (Sampson and Groves 1989) and institutional functioning (Health and McLaughlin 1993), are more difficult to obtain and often require community study or ethnographic observation, but they are likely to yield more powerful linkages.  The strongest linkages between neighborhoods and individual outcomes should logically include not only measures of the objective characteristics of neighborhoods but also characterizations of the perceived neighborhood - its norms, opportunities, barriers, dangers, models, controls, pressures, and supports as seen by its residents (Brooks-Gunn et al 1997).  More conceptual work is needed to identify the optimal units for study in a longer-term research agenda, as well as the structural, demographic, social, and cultural processes that need to be assessed.

At present, researchers often must use administrative units for which data are readily available to examine variations for a large number of areas.  Although administrative units, such as census tracts and block groups, are imperfect proxies for the concept of local community (Brooks-Gunn et al 1997), they generally possess more ecological integrity than cities or SMSAs, and they are more closely linked to the causal processes assumed to underlie the outcomes of interest.  Support for the use of block groups and census tracts as measures of neighborhoods is provided by research undertaken by the Denver Neighborhood Study to evaluate the construct validity of various approaches to identifying appropriate neighborhood units for the analysis of neighborhood effects (Brooks-Gunn et al 1997).

An important measurement issue in research on community and neighborhood influences is whether to use measures of single neighborhood characteristics or construct multivariate indices of underlying dimensions of neighborhood organization.  The case for using single variables as predictors has been based on the greater ease of interpreting the results and on the presumed greater ease of identifying policy-manipulable conditions (Jencks and Mayer 1990).  The neighborhood characteristics available in census data, however, may be distal markers or indicators for the processes that would need to be targeted through policy interventions. Moreover, the high intercorrelations among neighborhood characteristics suggest that the interpretation of analyses employing single neighborhood variables may be misleading.  At least two approaches to the use of multivariate indices of neighborhood disadvantage exist.  The approach of developing an index of cumulative risk is consistent with some research on risk and resilience suggesting that the number of risk factors may be more important for development than the precise nature of the risk factors (Sameroff et al 1993).  The approach of examining the effects of particular neighborhood risk factors is consistent with social disorganization research, which has shown that communities’ specific structural and compositional characteristics differentially affect community-level social processes and outcomes (Sampson and Groves 1989).  According to Brooks-Gunn, Duncan, and Aber (1997), the neighborhood characteristics that might have association with child health outcomes include: income, human capital, ethnic integration, social capital, social disorganization, and safety.

Neighborhood Socioeconomic Factors

It is true that the place where a person lives is an important part of his/her environment.   It is also true that individuals that share a particular characteristic (especially a socioeconomic one) that relates to infant health tend to cluster in some areas. Things like transportation availability, street safety, or access to health care affect all people living in a particular neighborhood independently of their, say, educational attainment or income.  Furthermore, living in a particular neighborhood can shape people's expectations, their self-perceived effectiveness to change their lives and their view of the world.

Several researches have shown that neighborhood social economic status (SES) is one of the most important characteristics associated with infant health outcomes.  Previous studies confirmed that socio economic factors such as income, poverty level, housing value and age of housing are associated with low birth weight and lead poisoning among infants.  Neighborhood income is, typically assessed in terms of neighborhood poverty and neighborhood affluence using census-tract data.  Neighborhood poverty is perhaps one of the most widely investigated dimensions of neighborhoods because residence in an impoverished neighborhood has implications for child-care settings (Brooks-Gunn and et al, 1997).   Research suggests that the concentrations of poor and affluent neighbors have differential effects on child health outcome and development. Public health research related to community-level factors, have shown that adverse birth outcomes such as low birth weight, fetal growth ratio, and gestational age are also differentially distributed by neighborhood.

The neighborhood socio-economic factors that are associated and shared with both Low birth weight and lead poisoning among infants, particularly those that will be addressed in the analysis, are income, poverty level, and housing value. The study conducted by Roberts (1997) to examine the socioeconomic precursors of disparities in maternal health by measuring the association of nine neighborhood-level indicators of social phenomena with low infant birthweight indicates that socioeconomic status and economic hardship were positively associated with low birth weight.  The study conducted by Lanphear et al (1998) to identify community characteristics associated with children having elevated blood lead levels ( 10 mug/dL) shows that lower housing value, housing built before 1950, higher population density, higher rates of poverty, lower percent of high school graduates, and lower rates of owner-occupied housing were associated with increased risk of elevated blood lead levels in children.  The other neighborhood socioeconomic factors that are associated either to low birthweight or lead poisoning among infant are age of housing which is directly associated with lead poisoning, and location of health care providers (access to health care) which is directly associated with low birthweight.  The study conducted by Recknor et al (1997), interstingly, indicates that Less than adequate use of prenatal care may reflect an increase in risk factors contributing to not only low birth weight but also to lead exposure in infancy.  The study also revealed that low birth weight was related to high blood lead levels. The other findings of this study point to the fact that intrauterine lead exposure, which is known to reduce birth weight, may contribute to measured blood lead levels at first screen. Alternatively,  low birth weight may increase lead absorption and retention in infancy or may increase risk of lead exposure.
 

Although infant health and infant mortality are affected by characteristics of the mother, community-level characteristics also may indirectly or directly affect infant health and infant mortality. Some examples of both individual- and community -level characteristics are discussed below.

The individual-level characteristics could be genetic, behavioral, socio-demographic or socio-economic. For example, a mother can transmit genes that predispose a child to diabetes. Although fetal growth is primarily determined by the availability of, delivery to, and utilization of nutrients by the fetus, multiple etiologic processes involving genetic and epigenetic factors, such as maternal nutrition, uteroplacental hemodynamics, endocrine alterations, and placental pathophysiology, may lead to fetal growth disorders (Feldman 2000). Researchers have suggested that responses of the neuroendocrine axis to psychosocial factors during pregnancy may affect one or more of these processes and thereby contribute to fetal growth restriction and low birth weight. The major maternal characteristics associated with low birthweight are cigarettes, alcohol, poverty, poor nutrition, poor psychosocial support, and inadequate prenatal care, which often are associated with drug use. Maladaptive health behaviors such as smoking, substance abuse, and poor weight gain during pregnancy are associated with increased rates of prematurity and low birth weight LBW, and it has been reported that these behaviors are more prevalent among stressed women (Copper and et al 1996). Smoking or cocaine use during pregnancy is a behavior that increases the frequency of low birth weight (defined as weight <2500 g). Cigarette smoking and cocaine use by pregnant women continues to be a significant public health problem especially among the urban poor. The majority of fetuses exposed to cocaine are also exposed to other toxins, including maternal cigarette smoke (Dempsey and et al 2000). Reported maternal and fetal effects of maternal cigarette smoking and of maternal cocaine use are very similar and include fetal growth retardation, spontaneous abortions, premature labor and delivery, placenta previa, placental abruption, sudden infant death syndrome, and cognitive and behavioral deficits in children (Forman R, Klein J, Meta D, Barks J, Greenwald M, and Koren G 1993). Compared with fetal cocaine exposure, the deleterious effects of maternal cigarette smoking on the fetus are unequivocal, because the associations have been found repeatedly in large epidemiologic studies (Fried PA and et al 1997, Richardson GA and et al 1996, Weitzman M 1992). Hypertonia has been cited as the most common reason for referral of cocaine-exposed infants to a pediatric neurologist (Chiriboga and et al, 1995). Previous reports also have found an increased incidence of hypertonia among infants of smokers (Chiriboga et al, 1995). In the 1980s maternal smoking contributed to between 17% and 26% of LBW in the United States (James M. Lightwood; Ciaran S. Phibbs; Stanton A. Glantz). LBW infants are admitted to neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) at a higher rate than normal birth weight infants, and are more susceptible to illnesses, such as lower respiratory tract infections. As a result, LBW infants, on average, require more expensive care than normal birth weight infants. Existing estimates of the mean excess direct medical cost per live birth because of a maternal smoking vary widely, from $200 to $1000 per live birth (in 1995 dollars) to a pregnant woman who smokes (Aligne, 1997). The race and age of the mother can affect infant health mostly through social and economic conditions. The economic and social conditions of the mother such as education, income, and poverty level may make access to needed services more difficult. Prior studies indicate that limited access to prenatal care or to inadequate prenatal care is related to poor birth outcome. Adequate prenatal care and improved maternal nutrition through balanced caloric or protein supplementation have been shown to lead to an overall increase in infant birth weight and to decrease the rate of low-birth-weight (LBW) deliveries in populations at risk (Brown and et al, 1996). Psychosocial factors such as stress, anxiety, depression, mastery, and self-esteem have been associated with increased rates of prematurity and low birth weight (LBW). The findings of the study conducted by Feldman and et al (2000) suggest that women with more years of education and married women have greater access to social and dispositional (eg, mastery, optimism, and self-esteem) resources during pregnancy and in turn have better birth outcomes. These are only examples of different ways in which innate or acquired characteristics of the mother can affect the child from an individual level.

Over the past few years, several researchers have suggested that community-level variables may provide information that is not captured by individual-level variables. Some of the individual level characteristics such as education, income, poverty level, access to health care, housing value, and age of housing when aggregated at census tract level can be used as community level characteristics. Community-level measures of socioeconomic characteristics (education, income, poverty level, and housing value) or of neighborhood deprivation have been used increasingly in the investigation of social inequalities in health and have been found to be related to mortality and other health outcomes (Diez-Roux, Nieto, Muntaner, Tyroler, Comstock, Sharhar, Cooper, Watson, and Szklo 1997). The findings of the study conducted by Dempsey et al (2000) revealed that the effects of in utero cocaine exposure and maternal smoking (which are individual characteristics) were overshadowed by the poverty and other environmental conditions (an example of community level factors) in which many of the exposed children live. The study conducted by Roberts (1997) reveals that community economic hardship and housing costs were positively associated with low birthweight, while community socioeconomic status, crowded housing, and high percentages of young and African-American residents were negatively associated with low birthweight. Another example of a community factor that have been associated with low birthweight is social support. Study conducted by Feldman (2000) shows that several types of social support (ie, family support, baby's father support, and general functional support) together predicted infant birth weight. Women with multiple types of support from different sources during pregnancy had higher-birth weight infants. Moreover, the relation between social support and birth weight held after controlling for length of gestation, suggesting that support is related to low birth weight through fetal growth processes rather than the timing of labor and delivery. Social support as an important predictor of birth weight is emphasized by the finding that it predicts birth weight independently but to the same extent as the well-known medical determinants of birth weight (i.e. availability of, delivery to, and utilization of nutrients by the fetus, substance abuse, smoking, alcohol consumption, etc) (Feldman et al 2000). Another most important community level characteristic that is related to infant health is age of housing. The age of housing is one of the most significant risk factors for lead exposure among infants. The older the house, the more likely it is to contain lead-based paint and a higher concentration of lead in the paint and children living in such housing may likely have elevated blood lead level.

Objective

The main goal of this paper is to present a result of an exploratory spatial data analysis conducted to develop and estimate two spatial models that can be used to determine risk areas in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, and to demonstrate how Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can be used in the geographic health variation analysis. The first model is designed to determine risk areas based on low birth weight, and the second model is designed to determine risk areas based on lead poisoning among infants. These models incorporates both the community level (including income, poverty level, house value, and age of housing) and individual level (alcohol consumption, and smoking) factors that are considered as determinants of adverse infant outcomes.
 

Methodology

The spatial data analysis aspect of this project relied upon the integrative capabilities of GIS. The exploratory spatial data analysis performed to estimate the two models, incorporated both spatial and non-spatial data. GIS was used to capture, store and manipulate both spatial (geo-referenced) data obtained from digitized maps, and non-spatial (attribute) data obtained from databases containing natality and socioeconomic data.  GIS technique helped delineate neighborhoods visually by mapping.   Spatial data analysis was performed to complement visual representation of attributes and to enhance the understanding of how socioeconomic and demographic characteristics differentially influence their spatial distribution.  The data generated through GIS was used in further multivariate statistical analysis to seek the best predictive indicators of risk areas.

The individual-level data – low birth weight - are drawn from the Infant Birth Files for 1992 to 1994 for Allegheny County by the National Center for Health Statistics, and lead blood level data by zip codes for 1994 - 1999 from the Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention Program.   For the Infant Birth Files, attributes were calculated for each individual child and then aggregated to census tract level.   The proportions of low birth weight (LBW), low fetal growth ratio (FGR), and premature infants have been calculated and aggregated to census tract level.  The community level – socioeconomic data are drawn from the population census of 1990 and the location for health care provider data was drawn from various community directories such as the “Where to turn to,“ Physicians directories from the local hospitals and HMOs and other health insurance companies.
 

Spatial Modeling

The first model is a simple linear expression relating low birth weight to unemployment, family median income, families below poverty level, housing median value, education level, alcohol consumption, and smoking while pregnant.  The second model also is a simple linear expression relating lead poisoning to family median income, housing median value, poverty level, education level, and age of housing.

The estimation of the first model was based on the observations for 499 contiguous census tracts and the estimation of the second model was based on the observation of contiguous zipcodes within Allegheny County, Pennsylvania.

Spatial regression analysis was performed for two major reasons. One was to find a good match or fit between the predicted values Xb (sum of the values of the explanatory variables, each multiplied with their regression coefficient) and observed values of the dependent variable y. The other objective was to determine which of the explanatory variables contributed significantly to the linear relationship. The spatial regression analysis included measures of fit, the coefficient estimates, standard errors, t-test values and associated probability of the estimated spatial models. Three major classes of test were applied to test the models. These three major specification tests are relevant particularly in terms of model validation. The first class was applied to test the presence of spatial effects, i.e., tests for spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. The second class of test was applied to test the extent of spatial effects, in particular, the extent of spatial dependence as reflected in the lag length included in spatial process models. The third class of test was applied to determine the structure of spatial dependence, as reflected in the choice of a spatial weight matrix. According to Anslen (1996), tests on non-nested hypotheses are particularly appropriate in this context. The three types of tests can be illustrated by means of the following general specification Y= g(y,r) + Xb + Î.  Î= h(Î,l) + m. Where y is a N by 1 vector of values for a dependent variable, observed across spatial units, g(y,r) is a function which expresses the spatial dependence among the y, with parameters r, X is a set of exogenous explanatory variables with associated parameters b, and Î is a disturbance term. The disturbance term itself is potentially structured as well, formalized in the function h(Î,l), with parameters l. Typically, both functions g and h are linear weighted sums, obtained from the multiplication of a spatial weight matrix W with the vector of observations on y (or Î). The goal of the first type of specification test, on the existence of spatial effects, was to determine whether the g(y,r) or h(Î,l) are relevant. The goal of the second type of test, on common factors, was to address the length of the spatial lag, i.e., the spatial extent of the dependencies encompassed in g(y,r) or h(Î,l). More specifically, this test was an attempt to find how many powers of W should be included in the functional specification. The goal of the third type of test, on non-nested hypotheses, is to investigate the structure of spatial dependence incorporated in g(y,r) or h(Î,l), i.e., the structure of the W itself.

Spatial Effects Specification Tests

Spatial effects test was incorporated in two ways: spatial dependence as expressed by a weight matrix, and spatial heterogeneity in the form of heterosckedasticity, spatial parameter variation and spatial structural shifts. Dependence was considered as first order contiguity between the census tracts and row standardized weight matrix was used in all analyses. Heteroskedasticity was expressed as a linear functional relation between the error variance and the squares of the explanatory variables. The spatial parameter variation was formulated in the expansion method as a function of the census tracts centroid coordinates expressed as X and Y variables. For the spatial effects diagnostics, the following statistical techniques were applied: 1) Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), 2) ML Estimation of a Mixed Regressive Spatial Autoregressive Model, 3) Spatial dependence in the error term, 4) Spatial Durbin Model, 5) Diagnostics for Spatial Effects in the Spatial Expansion Method, 6) Testing for spatial error dependence in a heteroskedastic model, 7) Testing for structural stability in the Presences of Spatial Error Dependence.  Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) was applied to the regression of Low birth weight to unemployment, family median income, families below poverty level, housing median value, education level, alcohol consumption while pregnant, and smoking cigarettes while pregnant; OLS also was applied to the regression of lead poisoning on a constant term, income, housing value, and age of housing. The main goal for applying OLS is to perform the lagrange multiplier diagnostic test that produces a one directional tests results which includes the spatial error autocorrelation, omitted spatial lag, random coefficient variation; and multidirectional tests results which includes spatial dependence, error autocorrelation, and heteroskedasticity. All estimated coefficients were tested for significance at p = 0.05 using t-values. The fit for regression was tested in terms of an R2 and adjusted Ra2 of equal or more than 0.5. Test for the presence of spatial autocorrelation in the error term was based on the Moran Statistic, lagrang e multiplier, and kelejian-Robinson computed for the residuals.

Results

The spatial layout for census tracts and zipcodes within Allegheny County are shown in Map 1 and Map 2, respectively.

Map 1      Spatial Layout for Census Tacts in Allegheny County

Map 2      Spatial Layout for Zipcodes in Allegheny County


 
 

Regression analysis was performed on several models to identify a model with the best fit, based on ordinary least squares estimation. The model shown on table 1 had the highest adjusted Ra2 of 0.5712 and did not increase when additional variables were added . The other alternative set of measures of fit computed for this model, the Akaike Information Criterion and Schwartz Criterion, had the lowest value indicating that this is the best model. This result shows a strong linear relationship between the dependent variable (low birth weight) and the explanatory variables (pre-term, unemployment, poverty level, alcohol consumption, and smoking during pregnancy). This result also shows the extent to which the predicted values match the observed. The estimated coefficients for this model also are significant at p = 0.05 (see table 1). Test for the presence of spatial autocorrelation in the error term based on the Moran' I statistics, Lagrange Multiplier, and Robust LM computed for the residuals are significant at p = 0.05. With regard to the test of multicollinearity of this model, the multicollinearity condition number of 5.665 is very low which indicates a very low correlation between the observations for the explanatory variables included in the regression specification. The test for normal error distribution is very significant at p = 0.05 for this model.
 

Table 1  Estimated Coefficients for Model 1 (Dependent variable: Low birth weight)
 
 

VARIABLE COEFF S.D. t-value Prob
Preterm 0.526186 0.0342963  15.342362 0.000000
Unemployment 0.00593166 0.00278549  2.129489 0.033709
PC Below Poverty 0.0289343  0.0128118 2.258415  0.024356
Per. Alcohol 0.115069   0.0559043 2.058315  0.040085
Per. Smoke 0.0638328 0.0137121  4.655210  0.000004

Maps 3 and 4 show census tracts within Allegheny County that are considered to have high proportion of low birth weight both observed and predicted values, respectively.
 

Map 3  Census tracts within Allegheny County that are considered to have high proportion of low birth weight

Map 4  Census tracts within Allegheny County that are considered to have predicted high proportion of low birth weight


 

The second model predicts areas with high rate of elevated blood lead level >= 10 ug/dl as defined by family median income, housing median value, families below poverty level, education level, and age of housing variables.The final model showed strong linear relationship between the dependent variable (elevated blood lead level) and the explanatory variables (families below poverty level, education level, and age of housing). The adjusted Ra2of 0.5262 is an indication of best fit.The estimated coefficients for the model are significant at p = 0.05 as shown on table 2.

Table 2  Estimated Coefficients for Model 2 (Dependent variable: Blood lead level >= 10 ug/dl )
 
 

VARIABLE COEFF. t-value Prob
Poverty level 0.563 3.911935 0.000207
Education 0.0047 2.952381 0.004272
Year House Built 0.2058 3.235403 0.001846

Test for the spatial dependence or presence of spatial autocorrelation in the error term based on the Moran’ I statistics is significant at p = 0.05 as shown below.
 

Test MI/DF Value Prob
Moran's I 0.1791 2.539173 0.011111
Lagrange Multiplier 1 4.926813 0.026443
Robust LM 1 4.418659 0.035548

The multicollinearity condition number of 6.04 which is less than the cut-point of 30 shows very low correlation between the observations for the explanatory variables included in the regression specification
The test for normal error distribution is very significant at p=0.05 for this model
 

Test MI/DF Value Prob
Jarque-Bera 2 10.9185 0.004557

Map 4     Areas Considered to Have High Rates of Blood Lead Level >= 10 ug/dl by Zipcodes within Allegheny County

Map 6     Predicted Areas Considered to Have High Rates of Blood Lead Level >= 10 ug/dl by Zipcodes within Allegheny County 

 

Secondary Heading

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this spatial data analysis, which incorporates both spatial and non-spatial data that includes community and individual level characteristics, shows that lower values of social economic indicators and higher values of alcohol consumption and smoking during pregnancy are positively associated with low birth weight.  The findings of this analysis confirms the fact that communities with high rates of unemployment and poverty level, high rates of smoking and alcohol consumption during pregnancy are most likely to have high rates of low birth weights and are also clustered within urban areas.  Similarly, communities with higher rates of poverty level, lower values of education level, and higher values of age of housing are at risk of having children with elevated blood lead level.

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Lucas O. Musewe
Data Coordinator/Manager
Office of Child Development/University Center of Urban and Social Research
University of Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh, PA 15206
Tel: (412)661-9280
Fax: (412)661-9288
E-mail: lmusewe@pitt.edu