2004 UC Proceedings Abstract

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GIS-Based Assessment of Post-Wildfire Debris-Flow Hazards, Southern California
Track: Water Resources
Author(s): Susan Cannon, John Michael

Debris flows can be one of the most hazardous consequences of rainfall on recently burned hillslopes. Empirical models developed to estimate the probability of post-wildfire debris-flow activity and the magnitude of the response are implemented on a GIS platform to generate a series of debris-flow hazard maps following the extensive wildfires in October 2003 in Southern California. The probability maps are based on the application of a logistic multiple regression model that describes the percent chance of debris-flow production from an individual basin as a function of burned extent, soil properties, basin gradients, and storm rainfall. The peak discharge maps are based on application of a multiple-regression model that estimates debris-flow peak discharge at a basin outlet as a function of basin gradient, burn extent, and storm rainfall. These maps identify those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and provide information for evacuation planning.

Susan Cannon
U.S. Geological Survey
Geologic Hazards Team
Box 25046 DFC, MS 966
Denver , CO 80225
US
Phone: 303.273.8604
E-mail: cannon@usgs.gov

John Michael
U.S. Geological Survey
Box 25046, DFC, MS 966
Denver , CO 80225
US
Phone: 303.273.8562
E-mail: jmichael@usgs.gov