Abstract
 Civilian Casualties in the Colombian Conflict--A Spatial Analysis Track: Sustainable Development and Humanitarian Affairs Author(s): Jorge Restrepo, Michael Spagat, Nicolás Suárez, Patrick Reanier We will present a quantitative, georeferenced analysis of human security during the Colombian conflict from 1988-2003. We will consider (viewing thousands of data points) different types of attacks and clashes between armed groups. For each event type we will present the number of casualties, the armed group(s) involved, and demographic data where these events occur. We will also present, using the Esri tracking extension, the dynamics of civilian casualties for various combinations of event types. The data argue that policy should focus on three costly circumstances in the Colombian conflict: massacres by right-wing paramilitarists in rural areas, massacres by left-wing guerrillas in rural areas, and guerrilla bombings in both the biggest urban areas and rural areas. Thus, Colombia's central human security challenge, mostly rural (with urban terrorism at times important), can be usefully defined geographically. Jorge Restrepo University of London Economics Royal Holloway University of London Egham , Surrey TW20 0EX GB Phone: 44(0)1784414001 Fax: 44(0)1784439534 E-mail: j.restrepo@rhbnc.ac.uk Michael Spagat University of London Department of Economics Royal Holloway University of London Egham , Surrey TW20 0EX GB Phone: 0 1784 414001 Fax: 0 1784 439534 E-mail: m.spagat@rhbnc.ac.uk Nicolás Suárez Universidad Nacional de Colombia Economics Centro de Recursos para el Análisis de Conflictos Carrera 10 # 65-35 Of. 603 Bogota , Bogota de Santa Fe Bogota D.F. CO Phone: (571) 345 85 72 E-mail: nicolas.suarez@cerac.org.co Patrick Reanier Foreign Military Studies Office GIS 731 McClellan Ave Bldg. 48 Fort Leavenworth , KS 66027 US Phone: (913) 684-5975 E-mail: pwrein@center.osis.gov |
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