Abstract

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Spatial Regression Model of Urban Sprawl at Forest Interface
Track: Forestry, Wildlife, and Fisheries Management
Author(s): Maitreyi Mandal, Douglas Carter

Landscape of Florida is undergoing a rapid transition mainly because of urbanization processes. This paper examines patterns of urban sprawl at the wildland urban interface of Alachua County in North Central Florida using a spatial econometric model (multinomial logit) with the application of GIS (Geostatistics) and remote sensing. A time series data of the last three decades has been analyzed using satellite and socioeconomic data to derive a spatial regression model of the urban sprawl at the interface. Results show that a closer distance to roads and cities, greater access to streams and rivers, income, forest type, and type of forest ownership are significant factors leading to urban sprawl and change of land use at the interface. This paper also examines the correlation of forest fire outbreak with sprawl and finally makes an economic impact assessment of this sprawl at the forest interface.

Maitreyi Mandal
University of Florida
School of Forest Resources and Conservation
356 Newins Ziegler Hall
Gainesville, FL 32601
US
Phone: 352 871 0076
E-mail: maitreyi@ufl.edu

Douglas Carter
University of Florida
School of Forest Resources & Conservation
357 Newins Ziegler Hall
PO Box 110410
Gainesville, FL 32611-0410
US
Phone: 3528460893
E-mail: drcart@ufl.edu