Using Regression Analysis for Testing Tornado Modeling Techniques
Track: Atmosphere, Climate, and Weather
Author(s): Mary Passe-Smith
ArcGIS 9.3ís new regression analysis tools will be used to explore whether terrain features, especially valley orientation, of areas that experience more tornadoes can be successfully modeled for predictive purposes. Overcoming difficulty in operationalizing directionality is a prime task to be tackled. Past research has shown visual tendencies, and analysis of mean direction confirms, but incorporating this information in to a model has thus far been difficult. With the new regression tools, it is hoped that the effect of valley orientation versus storm travel direction can be effectively modeled. The regression tools, further, will allow for far more effective testing methods than in the past. The study area will be the high-tornado state of Arkansas and low-tornado portions of southern Missouri for good comparison of factors which encourage or inhibit tornado formation.
University of Central Arkansas
100 Crestview Rd
Conway , Arkansas 72034