Abstract

Breaking Down the Grade Progression Model
Track: GIS for Administration, Planning and Policy
Authors: Richard Lycan, Charles Rynerson

The grade progression model may be the most commonly used method for forecasting K-12 enrollment. The model is easy to construct, uses readily available data, and provides useable short term enrollment forecasts. It forecasts future enrollment based on recent enrollment trends, known as grade progression ratios. These ratios are the result of several compounded factors: (1) in and out migration of students, (2) changes in the "capture rate", the share of the age cohort in the school system, and (3) gains and losses from transfers into and out of the district. Breaking out the impacts of these several factors requires careful geo-coding of student addresses and analysis of the spatial trends. This paper will outline how we apply this model to better understand the factors influencing enrollment changes. It also will explore the spatial extension of the model using grid cell analysis.