—Britta Bierwagen, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Climate change interacts with the land surface, which determines the extent of impacts. A variety of models project climate change scenarios based on socioeconomic scenarios, but the same capability does not exist for land-use scenarios. We developed a modeling system that is consistent with these socioeconomic scenarios in order to explore the interacting effects of climate and land-use change on human health and environmental endpoints. The modeling system includes a nationwide demographic and spatial allocation model. Under all modeled scenarios, urban areas are expected to increase from 79% to 171% and suburban areas by 56% to 162%. As population grows and residential land use expands, other land-cover types will be converted into housing. The projected conversion of approximately 30% of agricultural lands under all scenarios highlights the potential for conflicts between food, biofuels, and people. Integrating these data with climate change projections yields a more comprehensive understanding of potential impacts.