Paper #773

Title of Paper:

"Can we all get along?"

Using GIS to Explore Attitudes About Race and Ethnic Diversity in Orange County.

Authors’ Names:

Fred Smoller, Ph.D.

Amanda Levy

Chapman University

Abstract:

Orange County has witnessed a dramatic shift in the demographic makeup of its residents.  In 1980, 86 percent of the county was white; today, that figure is 51%. By the end of 2001, no racial or ethnic group will be in the majority.[1] How has this county, which has a national reputation as a hotbed of right wing conservatism, reacted to these changes? Are we becoming more or less tolerant of racial and ethnic diversity? To find out, Chapman University students conducted a telephone survey  (N=1,000) during the spring of 2001, which asked 20 questions about racial and ethnic tolerance of Orange County. These questions were first asked in 1994 in the University of California Annual Survey. This paper will explore the differences in attitudes between 1994 and today using  ArcView 8. 

Introduction:

In a recently published book about Orange County, Suburban Warriors: The Origins of the New American Right, Harvard professor Lisa McGirr writes that Orange County has oft been known as a home of the “anti-Communist John Birchers, apocalypse prophesying evangelists, cowboy capitalists who demanded free enterprise and an unregulated economy.” Fortune Magazine referred to the Orange County as “Nut Country.” [2]   While not part of the "racist right" that dominated the Southern States, Orange County has not enjoyed a reputation as an oasis of tolerance for people of color. Consider the following:

·        In the 1920s, the Ku Klux Klan supporters won local offices in         Anaheim, Fullerton, Brea, and La  Habra.

·        As recently as 1945, Hispanic school children were forced to attend segregated schools.

·        In 1963, former Congressman James Utt said that a  "large contingent of barefooted Africans" might be training Georgia for what he hinted could be part of a United Nations military exercise to take over the United States. Utt was elected four times to his central Orange County congressional seat.

·        In 1988, the local Republican Party hired poll guards to harass and intimidate Latino voters.

·        A German restaurant in Huntington Beach still celebrates Hitler's birthday.

More recently, strong majorities of Orange County voters have supported state ballot initiatives to end affirmative action and to deny the children of illegal aliens access to school and health care. Orange County is the home of Save Our State, the anti-immigrant group that erected a sign at the California border warning illegal immigrants to stay out. 

Opposition to people of color has taken other forms: including declining support for public schools that have seen a marked increase in Hispanic and Asian children (the voucher campaign), opposition to bilingual signage at John Wayne Airport, and opposition to discount retail stores such as Wal-Mart (which are said to cater to “the wrong type of people”).  Conservative forces worked hard to deny the county’s first Hispanic Congresswoman, Loretta Sanchez, her seat in Congress.

At the same time, Orange County is becoming far more racially diverse. In 1980, 86 percent of the County was non-Hispanic white. Today, that figure is 51%.  By the end of 2001, the county will join the state by becoming “majority-minority.” How is this county, known throughout the nation as a hotbed of right wing conservatism, reacting to these changes?

Survey Research Methodology:

Interested in the changing nature of Orange County, a group of Chapman University students conducted a survey that included a set of Race and Ethnic Diversity questions that were devised and first asked by Mark Baldassare in the 1994 University of California at Irvine (UCI) Annual Survey of Orange County.  By using the data from the UCI Annual Survey, two distinct points formed-a data point from 1994, and one from 2001.  These two points allowed for comparison of racial attitudes in the County of Orange. The survey used these previous Race and Ethnic Diversity questions, while incorporating other topical Orange County issues. 

Chapman University students asked survey questions in three major areas: the economy, Orange County “hot” issues, and the Race and Diversity section.  The economic questions measured the level of consumer confidence in economic affairs-on the personal, local, and national levels.  The respondents were also asked whether the impending national tax cut would have an effect on their finances. 

The Chapman Survey asked county residents about the construction of an airport at the former Marine Core Air Station El Toro- a controversial Orange County issue that has dominated the political landscape for over a decade.  It is an area that continues to be prevalent in today’s political battles.  The survey further asked questions in the areas of affordable housing, gun control, and the current California electricity crisis. 

Rounding out the survey were the race and Ethnic Diversity questions, which set out to gauge Orange Countians’ attitudes on living in an ever-changing and constantly growing diverse community.  Questions measured the perception of conflict of ethnic groups in Orange County, and the optimism or pessimism of residents as to the future of race relations. The survey also inquired as to the effect of minorities on local government, the local economy, and the quality of life of Orange County.  The survey further measured the academic attention given to minorities in the classroom, and the proliferation of minorities in neighborhoods throughout the county.

            The Chapman Survey was conducted by telephone April 16^th through May 1^st. The sample size was 1,000. A random sample of telephone numbers was purchased from Scientific Telephone Samples (STS), Santa Ana, California. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3%. The survey was conducted in English, Spanish and Vietnamese. The survey was conducted in the Ludie and David C. Henley Survey Research Center located on the premises of Chapman University.

 ARCVIEW

After the compilation of the date from the Chapman Survey was completed, ARCVIEW 8.0 was utilized in the graphing the county’s Diversity Index over the past twenty years, and creating maps of data collected via telephone in the Henley Survey Research Center. The computer program was used to make unique maps of Orange County that were divided into three distinct regions.  The North, Central, and South County divisions were used to capture the independence and differences of the county from region to region. The regions vary by population, density, and demographics. ARCVIEW technology made it possible to input data from the phone interviews into the appropriate regional grouping, and then capture a picture of the regional views and attitudes.

Diversity Index Methodology:

The Diversity Index is a standard measure of how ethnically and racially diverse a community is.  It calculates the probability that two people picked at random will be of a different race and ethnicity.  Created by Shawn McIntosh of USA TODAY and Phil Meyer of the University of North Carolina in 1991, the Diversity Index is based on the five federally recognized racial categories.  The Index can be used on city, county, state, and national levels.  The Diversity Index was used with official 1980, 1990, and 2000 population figures for Orange County and its individual cities. The five federally recognized races are White, Black, Asian-Pacific Islander, American Indian, and Hispanic.  There is also recognition of “other race.” 

To calculate the Diversity Index, one begins by calculating the percentage frequency for each race (removing the “other race” from the total population).  This percentage is converted to a decimal, and treated as though one person will be chosen from the race.  The percentages are squared, to allow one to see the possibility that two people from a particular race will be chosen.  The sum of the squares of all races are added together to define the likelihood that two people are of the same race.

Since it is considered an ethnic, rather than racial, group, Hispanic frequency is determined separately.  The sum of the squares of the Hispanic and the Non-Hispanic population are added together.  The sum of the racial probabilities and the ethnic probabilities are multiplied (this number represents the probability that any two people are the same race and ethnicity). The product of this number is subtracted by the number “1” representing the number that two random people are different.  The number is multiplied by 100 to arrive at an integer.  A Diversity Index of 50 denotes that 50% of the time, two random people will be of different ethnic and racial backgrounds. 

Diversity Index Findings:

In the year 2000, the Diversity Index score for the United States was 49. This was a significant increase from the score of 40 in 1990.  The year 2000 number represents that there is a 49% chance of two random people from the United States of being racially and ethnically different. In 2000, the State of California Diversity Index was 69, while the County of Orange’s was 64.  The Orange County figures for each 10-year period (1980, 1990, 2000) were compared to the current (2000) Diversity Indexes of the United States and the State of California. The Diversity Index was calculated for each individual city in Orange County to create a clear picture of the county’s growing diversity. 

Each map contains a legend that has four different measures.   A score of “0” means that the area of the county was not scored (most notably the unincorporated area of Orange County).  This score is denoted by the beige color in the map.  A score of 1-48 means that the Diversity Index is under the current national Index, and is denoted by the color red.  A score of 49-68 means that the region scored equal to or above the national Diversity Index, but is lower than California’s Index (the score is denoted in blue).  A score of 68-100 on the Diversity Index scale means that the region scored equal to or above the Index for the State of California, and is denoted by the color white. 

1980 data reveals that Orange County was a homogenous society. No city scored equal to or above the California Index.  Only one city (Santa Ana) scored in the midrange of higher than the nation, but lower than the state. The bulk of Orange County scored under the national Diversity Index.   Ten years later, Orange County’s diversity had increased to new levels.  Santa Ana’s diversity had surpassed state levels, while the diversity in a handful of cities had also increased to levels above the national Diversity Index.  There was no longer as strong of a bulk of homogenous communities. In 2000, there exists a marked difference in diversity levels across the nation.  Six cities are above state diversity levels, with many other cities well above national levels.  A handful of cities below the national average still exist, but their levels of diversity are higher than they have been in the past.

Chapman Survey Results:

The results of the Chapman Survey told a story that was, in many cases, at odds with the traditional Orange County reputation.  It was not a tale of the conservative, xenophobic nuclear families.  It was a tale of the growing diversity of the region-and how the diversity has shifted attitudes about race and ethnicity throughout the County as a whole.  The data from the Chapman Survey suggests, on the whole, that Orange Countians are becoming more tolerant.  A combination of changing demographics coupled with an overall easing of race relations, the County is portraying a greater sense of inclusion and optimism than it has in years past.  In re-asking a set of Race and Ethnic Diversity questions (first asked seven years ago), the Chapman Survey clearly captured the shift in attitudes, moving towards a more tolerant vision of the county.

The Chapman Survey asked residents if they felt that the Board of Supervisors’ political districts should be redrawn to reflect the racial and ethnic diversity of Orange County.  An overwhelming 74% of the population felt that it was important (very or somewhat) that the redrawn districts reflect the changing demographics of the county. This statistic held up against gender, income, and race categories. North County residents, more so than any other region, embraced the need for new, ethnically reflective districts (74%).  This finding is quite timely, as all political districts are in the process of redistricting to reflect new census data.   

The Chapman Survey further found that the different ethnic groups are getting along in Orange County. 1994 data reveals that 33% of residents felt that ethnic groups were getting along. Seven years later, the number has swelled to 59%, a significant increase in residents’ confidence levels about race relations.  The finding holds against up against all regional divisions. Concerning the level of conflict in Orange County, there has been a notable decrease in the answers from members of each racial and ethnic subgroup.  Whites have noticed a decrease of 34 points from 1994 to 2001. Hispanic answered 52% of ethnic groups were in conflict in 1994, while 38% were in 2001.  These point towards a trend of tolerance over adversity. 

While the majority of residents feel that ethnic groups are getting along better, there is still recognition of problems suffered by minorities. Overall, 59% of Orange County adults recognize that minorities do, indeed, have problems to contend with in the county. In 1994, 69% of residents felt the severity of minority problems.  In 2001, Central County residents responded most frequently that minorities have problems (64%).  The numbers in North and South County were 58% and 61%, respectively.  Hispanics feel that the problems of minorities have increased-62% felt they had problems in 1994, while 70% answered “yes” to the same question in 2001. 

County residents, on the whole, remain confident that race relations will continue to improve. 48% of residents surveyed feel there will be an improvement in relations in the next five to ten years; in 1994, only 28% thought relations would improve.  Central County residents, who most strongly feel that minorities have problems living in Orange County, are also the most optimistic.  49% of Central County residents feel that relations will improve.

Have minorities helped or hurt aspects of the quality of life in Orange County?  These questions were asked in the UCI Survey and then re-asked by Chapman University.  Orange County residents feel that minorities have helped the overall quality of life (58%) and the local economy (64%).  These numbers have increased since 1994, when 45% felt minorities helped the quality of life, and 49% felt helped the local economy. In the year 2001, South County residents feel that minorities have helped the quality of life (68%) and the local economy (70%) the most. In regards to local government, all County regions feel that minority groups have made it harder for local government to be effective (53%). This number remains high, and serves as a sign that Orange Countians are not embracing all aspects of the diversity that surrounds them.  However, when asked in 1997, 73% of residents felt minorities made it harder for local government to be effective. In every racial and ethnic breakdown, a majority of residents say minorities do, indeed, make it harder for local government to be effective.  50% of Hispanic and Asian groups reported it was harder; while 54% of Black people, and 55% of Whites noticed the negative impact. 

Discrimination is not absent from today’s Orange County.  There was no change in the percentage (15%) of Latinos who have personally experienced discrimination in 1994 and 2001.  In fact, there was a small increase in the percentage of Orange County adults who always or frequently experience discrimination (6% in 1994, 7% in 2001). The overall numbers of people who feel that their groups have experienced discrimination (30%) remains higher than those who have personally experience such discrimination (20%). Central County residents were the most prone to discrimination (24%), while South County residents were the least (16%).

            As the demographics of Orange County are changing, the Chapman Survey was determined to see if residents felt the impact of the diversity in their neighborhoods. When asked if the ethnic or racial makeup of their neighborhood had changed, over half of North and Central County responded “yes,” compared with 41% of South County residents.  In each region, a majority of residents felt the change was good for the neighborhood.  South County, who has experienced the least change, felt it has done the most good (55%), followed by North (53%) and Central (50%). 

In regards to the academic attention given to minorities, in all three geographical regions, a plurality of residents feel that the experiences of minorities are given the right amount of attention (35%).  Of all regions, Central County residents feel that the experiences of minorities should be given more attention (24%), while North (30%) and South County (28%) feel that too much academic attention is given to minorities.

Hate Crimes are grossly underreported throughout Orange County.  While most residents have not experienced a hate crime, North County residents have experience more than any other region (13%). Central County is close behind with 12%, followed by South County with 9%.  North County was the most likely to report a Hate Crime (25%), followed by Central (22%) and then South County (11%).

GIS as Teaching Tool in the Classroom

Arc View GIS was used in the analysis of the survey data.  Chapman University students inputted the data collected in the surveying period, and created maps of Orange County, each with a different data frame. All work was completed with the ArcView 8, the newest version of Esri GIS software. The separate data frames represented the separate survey questions asked.  In addition to creating maps for the survey data, students creating maps expressing the Diversity Indexes of each of the 33 cities in Orange County.  

Implications

            How do we interpret these results? In a word, with caution. Surveys have been described as snapshots of moving trains.  So, we need to be cautious and hardheaded in assessing the significance of these findings. It is possible that the earlier 1994 study, coming in the wake of the 1992 Los Angeles riots, presented an overly negative portrayal of the county's attitudes toward race and ethnic diversity. It is also the case that the current study's results present an atypically positive portrayal, one that will quickly fade should the current rosy local economy falter. It has also been pointed out that because there were so few African Americans in the study--they make up less 2 percent of the population--that the African American experience is not well reflected here. We feel that the data suggest that today’s Orange County is somewhat more tolerant than it was in 1994 and far more diverse and tolerant than its national reputation would suggest.

Such “mellowing” poses a significant challenge to the Republican Party, which for the past 16 years has been dominated by religious conservatives. Republicans hold five of Orange County’s six congressional seats, six of seven of the Assembly seats, three of four state Senate seats, five of five seats on the Board of Supervisors, and the bulk of city council and school board seats. In Orange County there are over 200,000 more registered Republicans than there are registered Democrats.

            Nevertheless, there has been a steady erosion of party support. Republican registration in the county dropped by 5.3 percent in the 1990s—from 55.2 to 49.9%. (That’s right, Republicans are no longer the majority party in Orange County!) The percentage of Democrats has also declined, but only by 2%. Of the 137,102 new voters who registered in the county from 1990 through June of 2000, twice as many registered as Democrats (13%) as Republicans (6%). A whopping 80% registered independent—suggesting that neither party has much appeal to new voters.

            To win races in the increasingly heterogeneous Orange County, candidates will need to attract voters from beyond their core supporters. Critics argue that the Republican Party is too ideologically rigid, and want a more inclusive party, one that is responsive to Orange County’s changing demographics. They want to attract Latinos and working people and do not want to alienate gays. They decry the so-called litmus test on abortion that is applied to prospective candidates and the demonizing of those who simply disagree.

In a similar vein, Democrats have been made some important gains recently. They now occupy one congressional seat (Loretta Sanchez of Garden Grove), one Assembly seat (Lou Correa of Anaheim), and one state Senate seat (Joe Dunn, of Santa Ana). Current trends and local issues are also breaking well for Democrats. The Democratic Party has been the beneficiary of Orange County’s increasing diversity. Latinos—the fastest growing ethnic group—are registering Democrat 9 to 1, and the once solidly Republican Vietnamese community is increasingly voting Democratic. Latinos have not yet forgotten that the local Republican Party hired survey guards in 1988 to harass Latino voters or the attempt to deny Sanchez her seat in Congress.

Democrats believe that government can be a constructive force in society. So do an increasing number of Orange County voters who look to government to build an repair crumbling infrastructure, curtail development, provide health care to the poor, and protect our air, water, and preserve open space.

Democrats have been less enthusiastic about deregulation and privatization, ideas championed by the Republicans.  Orange County’s negative experience with HMO’s, privately owned toll roads that continue to lose money, polluted beaches, and the deregulation of the electrical power industry has caused many residents to question free market solutions to complex public policy questions.

Orange County is a quintessential city of the future. Tracking the changes that are taking place here can provide important information for policy makers for the rest of the nation.

Author Information:

Dr. Fred Smoller

Associate Professor of Political Science

Chapman University

Orange, CA 92866

p.714-997-6610

f.714-532-5617

smoller@chapman.edu