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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUN 06 2001

SURFACE SYNOPTIC AND WSR-88D DATA SHOW AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 
AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER...WHICH APPARENTLY RE-FORMED NORTHWARD AND 
CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  THE SUSTAINED 
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND THE CYCLONE 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. 

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5.  TRACK GUIDANCE GOES EVERY WHICH 
WAY.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO.  GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ALLISONS REMNANTS GETTING STUCK 
BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST 
SHOWS ONLY A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION...KEEPING THE SYSTEM 
STATIONARY THEREAFTER. 

SINCE THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY...THERE IS A 
CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON 
ALLISON.  FUTURE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN STORM SUMMARIES ISSUED 
BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER 
NFDSCCNS1 AND UNDER WMO HEADER ACUS42 KWBC.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 30.2N  95.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 30.3N  95.3W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     07/0600Z 30.5N  95.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     07/1800Z 30.5N  95.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     08/0600Z 30.5N  95.0W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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