2004 UC Proceedings Abstract
 Modeling the Tornado Threat in Arkansas With GIS Track: EMS, Fire and Disaster Management Author(s): Mary Passe-Smith Past efforts to explain Arkansas' relatively high tornado fatality rates using geographic methods conclude that many of Arkansas' population centers are, evidently coincidentally, located in local 'tornado alleys.' This distribution might simply reflect a bias in reporting due to the rural nature of the state. When evaluating personal risk, the public's sole information source is often media displays delimiting "Tornado Alley," most of which exclude Arkansas. Utilizing Esri's Spatial Analyst extension and statistical analysis, I will test the above hypothesis by demonstrating the relationship between population (density of settlements and census blocks) and tornado reports. An attempt will then be made to model the actual distribution by assuming an even distribution of population and analysis of anomalous regions (i.e., high tornado/low population) to determine if features such as elevation, slope, aspect, or land use might aid in modeling tornado distribution. Mary Passe-Smith University of Central Arkansas Geography Irby 217B University of Central Arkansas Conway , AR 72035 US Phone: 501-450-5691 E-mail: marysuep@uca.edu |
|||||
