2004 UC Proceedings Abstract
 Fuzzy Expert Systems and GIS for Health Risk Prediction Track: Health and Human Services Author(s): Graeme McFerren The South African Council for Scientific and Industrial Research investigates technologies to predict health risk in line with national priorities. Cholera cases are commonly reported in the region, despite the funneling of extensive resources into ameliorating the problem. It is possible that this results from a lack of foresight as to the likely outbreak locations and times. Environmentek has designed an early warning GIS prototype tool, using ArcView and ERDAS IMAGINE, aimed at identifying favorable pre-conditions for cholera outbreak. The model behind the tool is driven by boolean algebra and fuzzy logic approaches that interrogate data patterns of spatial layer attributes. These attribute values determine the kind of algorithm to utilize and to directly interpret the risks. This tool relies on capturing expert knowledge and historic data that integrates climatic and biophysical parameters with socio-economic parameters to produce a fuzzy surface of cholera outbreak risk potential. Graeme McFerren CSIR Spatial Information Technologies for the Environment PO Box 395 Pretoria 0001 ZA Phone: 27128413188 E-mail: gmcferren@csir.co.za |
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