Abstract
 Test-Driving a Tornado Likelihood Model Track: Climate, Weather and Atmosphere Author(s): Mary Passe-Smith A tornado likelihood model developed, but not rigorously tested or applied, for Esri 2004 will be applied outside of Arkansas to test its universality; in areas of low population to remove any accidental bias introduced by the correlation between people and tornado reports; and used to estimate the true tornado count in areas suspected of underreporting. If the model's general usefulness is verified, the resulting findings can be applied to better risk assessment in states where, for whatever reason, tornado statistics are thought to be highly inaccurate. Mary Passe-Smith University of Central Arkansas Geography 100 Crestview Rd Conway , AR 72034 US Phone: 501-450-5691 E-mail: marysuep@uca.edu |
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