Abstract
The Accuracy of Predicting Vulnerability in Sudan to Guinea Worm Track: Health and Human Services Author(s): Sarah Elliott Limited resource allocations can be greatly hindered by the absence of information. Under these circumstances, decisions must be made based on incomplete evidence. The Dempster-Shafer Weight-of-Evidence Theory allows decision makers to acknowledge this discrepancy by assigning value to incomplete information through the use of probabilities expressing degrees of uncertainty. Land cover and infrastructure are associated with the vulnerability of populations. Selected features are assigned probabilities based on the likelihood of contact with the contaminated water sources and the chances that the population would know to filter the water. The results are expressed in the degree of certainty, or uncertainty, in determining where people are at greatest risk. This project assesses the accuracy of predicted locations in Sudan where populations are believed to be particularly vulnerable to the guinea worm parasite by comparing these locations with actual case data using spatial analysis and geostatistics. Sarah Elliott Shaw Environmental GIS 19909 120th Ave NE, Suite 101 Bothell , WA 98011 US Phone: 816-405-9067 E-mail: pcbassar@yahoo.com |
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