Abstract
National Housing Density and Impervious Surface Scenarios Track: Modeling Author(s): Chris Pyke, Britta Bierwagen, Anne Choate, David Theobald Climate and land-use change are ubiquitous drivers of global environmental change. Impact assessments frequently show that interactions between climate and land-use change can create serious challenges for aquatic ecosystems, water resources, and air quality. These assessments are limited by geographically fragmented projections that are often based on inconsistent or poorly documented socioeconomic story lines. This project developed realizations for housing density and impervious surface cover for the conterminous United States for each decade through 2100. These scenarios were generated using the population allocation-based Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGoM). The scenarios are driven by well-documented parameter sets consistent with widely used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic story lines. Chris Pyke US EPA - ORD NCEA US EPA - ORD (MC 8601 N), 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW Washington, DC , DC 20460 US Phone: 202-564-1225 E-mail: pyke.chris@epa.gov Britta Bierwagen Ph.D. US EPA - ORD 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW MC 8601 N Washington , DC 20460 US Phone: 202-564-3388 E-mail: bierwagen.britta@epa.gov Anne Choate ICF Consulting 1725 Eye St., NW, Suite 1000 Washington , DC 20006 US Phone: 202-862-1226 E-mail: achoate@icfconsulting.com David Theobald Ph.D. CSU - NREL NREL Campus Mail 1499 Fort Collins , CO 80523 US Phone: 970-491-5122 E-mail: davet@nrel.csu.edu |
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