Abstract
A Plan for Sustainable Development, Using Geospatial Prediction Models Track: Modeling Author(s): Laura Norman, D. Guertin, Mark Feller, Angela Donelson This paper describes an approach to forecast urban development and circumvent potential ramifications on environmental quality in colonias of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora (Ambos Nogales). Neighborhoods lacking sewer, water, or adequate housing were identified across the border based existing maps, aerial photos, and community-participation. Urban development was predicted to the year 2030 by the Clarke urban growth model, SLEUTH. Urban extent predictions were used in the Universal Soil Loss Equation and Spatially Explicit Delivery Model to quantify the amount of sediment (nonpoint-source pollution) being eroded, transported, and deposited based on changes predicted in urban area. Techniques designed to protect erosion 'hot spots' were developed. A sustainable development plan was generated based on levels of management, depicting better water quality, and presumably, better air quality, in the future. Research was presented to local officials for specific colonias and is being implemented in planning for sustainable development in the twin-city area. Laura Norman USGS Southwest Geographic Science Center 520 N. Park Ave., Ste ##355 Tucson , AZ 85719 US Phone: 5206705510 E-mail: lnorman@usgs.gov D. Guertin University of Arizona School of Natural Resources 325 Biosciences East Tucson , AZ 85719 US Phone: 5206211723 E-mail: phil@nexus.srnr.Arizona.EDU Mark Feller USGS Rocky Mountain Mapping Center Box 25046 Denver , CO 80225 US Phone: 3032024277 E-mail: mrfeller@usgs.gov Angela Donelson University Of Arizona Department of Geography and Regional Development Harvill Building, Box ##2 Tucson , AZ 85719 US Phone: 5206211652 E-mail: angie_donelson@hotmail.com |
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