Abstract

Dynamically Evaluating Fire Risk through Agent-based Models
Track: Modeling
Author(s): Sean Murphy

The natural fire cycle in the Great Basin area of California has shortened from every 50 to 60 years to 3 to 5 years, putting many natural ecosystems and occupied lands in danger. Two phenomena will be investigated to quantify fire risk. The first entity, cheatgrass, is renowned for its invasive nature and the detrimental effects it has on native annual and perennial grasses. The second entity, tree death, results from the bark beetle reproduction cycle, a common threat to the San Bernardino National Forest. Based on fuzzy vegetation classifications and characteristics of both species, the rules for an agent-based model will be used to simulate the future extents of both phenomena. The Agent Analyst extension, in conjunction with Esri's ArcGIS Desktop and the Recursive Porous Agent Simulation Toolkit (Repast), provides an excellent tool to run simulations.

Sean Murphy
University of Redlands
1111 E. Central Ave
Apt. 15
Redlands , California 92374
United States
Phone: 1-651-605-5091
E-mail: sean.phillip.murphy@gmail.com