Abstract

Modeling Land-Use Policies in California's San Joaquin Valley and Kenya
Track: Ecology and Conservation
Author(s): Karen Beardsley, Michael McCoy

The world's population continues to increase as we approach a point in time when more than half the planet's people live in cities. Urbanization has serious impacts on the biological and natural resources of a region, regardless of whether it is in a developing or developed country. We developed a rule-based GIS urban growth model, UPlan, and generated scenarios for projected growth patterns given different development policies. We applied UPlan to eight counties of the San Joaquin Valley of California, an area expected to double in population in the next 40 years, and analyzed impacts of seven growth scenarios on 14 priority biological resources. We then adapted the model using human, livestock, and wildlife distribution data for a region in southern Kenya. This work demonstrates use of a common model for vastly different locations using a variety of input data sources. Results, lessons learned, and future directions will be presented.

Karen Beardsley
University of California, Davis
Dept. of Environmental Science and Policy
One Shields Avenue
Davis , California 95616
United States
Phone: 530-752-5678
E-mail: kbeardsley@ucdavis.edu

Michael McCoy
University of California, Davis
One Shields Avenue
DESP
Davis , California 95616
United States
Phone: (530)754-9171
E-mail: mcmccoy@ucdavis.edu