Abstract

UPlan: A Tool for Simple Urban Growth Modeling
Track: State and Local Government
Author(s): Nathaniel Roth, Michael McCoy

The Information Center for the Environment at the University of California, Davis created UPlan based on Professor Bob Johnston's ideas for an urban growth model that uses simple demographics and a limited GIS dataset to predict likely future development.

Demographic inputs include the change in population and household and employment characteristics and densities. These then provide the needed land area for each land use. Weighted spatial data determines the net attractiveness and availability to development. The needed land area is allocated to the most attractive land first. Allocation is complete for each land use when all needed land is allocated or the available space is exhausted.

All of the existing ArcGIS and Spatial Analyst functionality is available to users for post run analysis. Some tools support exporting the output into transportation model formats and provide summary information on the run.

UPlan operates in ArcGIS9 using the Spatial Analyst Extension.

Nathaniel Roth
University of California, Davis
Deparment of Environmental Science & Policy
1 Shields Ave
Davis , California 95616
United States
Phone: 530-752-1331
E-mail: neroth@ucdavis.edu

Michael McCoy
University of California, Davis
Department of Environmental Science & Policy
1 Shields Ave
Davis , California 95616
United States
Phone: 530 - 754-9171
E-mail: mcmccoy@ucdavis.edu