AbstractUsing GIS Modeling and Econometric Forecasting of Individual Landowner DecisionsTrack: Modeling Author Evolving econometric models incorporating GIS processing can predict the likelihood of development at the parcel level through analysis of spatially explicit attributes and other indicators . This paper analyzes 22 square miles of the environmentally sensitive Wekiva River Basin (WRB) area near Orlando, Florida. First, historical data is analyzed or reconstructed using GIS processing to identify and empirically test which indicators are best estimators of a development event. Then using ArcInfo, attributes are generated for each developable parcel in the study area for location-specific ecological, demographic, and economic factors. The model predicted with 91% accuracy which parcels would remain in rural use, and which would develop by the end of the period. The estimators were overlaid with current land use data to forecast parcel-specific future development. Applications include planning for transportation right-of-way acquisition, water resource conflicts, and conservation land purchases. Paul Yacobellis The Balmoral Group 341 N. Maitland Ave Suite 100 Maitland, Florida 32751 United States Phone: 407-629-2185 E-mail: pyacobellis@balmoralgroup.us Valerie Seidel The Balmoral Group 341 N. Maitland Ave Maitland, Florida 32751 United States Phone: 407-629-2185 E-mail: vseidel@balmoralgroup.us |