Abstract

Critical Energy Infrastructure Protection: Vulnerability Analysis of the BTC Pipeline
Track: Defense and Intelligence
Authors: Antonio De la Cruz, Bogdan Palade, Pedro Soares

The study has focused on the risk analysis of the BTC pipeline along Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey (1,768 km) to insurgent sabotages. The GIS integration approach consisted in the identification of the geospatial and socio-political factors of specific pipeline sabotages which included the surrounding topography, vegetation, road and population density, transportation network, presence of ethnic and insurgent groups as well as other socio-political data. These factors were integrated in 26 map layers derived from satellite imagery and GIS that allowed extrapolation along the BTC pipeline in the search of additional pipeline sectors with similar geospatial and socio-political characteristics to those sections that suffered sabotages. These factors were weighted to estimate pipeline risks to sabotages and perform the vulnerability analysis.
The results allowed the segmentation of the BTC pipeline in several degrees of risk in which further security actions can be undertaken to reduce sabotage exposure.