Abstract

A Space-time Simulation Model for Termite Dispersal in South Florida
Track: Parks and Natural Reserves
Authors: Francesco Tonini, Rudolf Scheffrahn, Hartwig Hochmair

Termites are destructive insect pests that cause billions of dollars in property damage every year. Exotic invasive species have become established pests in parts of the United States. Spread models predicting the areas of infestation following initial introduction of an invasive species are important for an authoritative response. This presentation illustrates a simulation model for the spatial-temporal expansion pattern of the Asian subterranean termite (Coptotermes gestroi) by natural means in South Florida. The model applies statistical distributions over the dispersal distance of termite flights and flight directions, including nearest neighbors spatial models to incorporate the maximal attraction distance between heterosexual pairs to establish a new colony. ArcGIS is used to visualize the change of spatial phenomena (i.e. spread over time), and its compatibility with R, an open source programming language for statistical computing, is demonstrated.