Abstract

REDD baselines modeling: Peru and DRC case studies
Track: Climate Change and Conservation
Authors: Fabiano Godoy

REDD is being negotiated internationally as viable option to mitigate climate change. As a result, there is a call for project demonstrations on how to achieve greenhouse gases (GHG) emission reductions by avoiding deforestation on the ground. Sub-national level REDD initiatives require the development of a spatial explicitly scenario of GHG emissions reductions, but standardize methodologies have not been defined yet, bringing several challenges.

We have used the ArcGIS extensions - Land Change Modeler and Spatial Analysts, to estimate the potential emissions from two REDD initiatives for the period 2010-2030. We used the potential for transition map, which is based on the correlation between historical deforestation and biophysical and socioeconomic variables, to predict the future deforestation distribution.

If the REDD initiatives are successfully implemented, is expected to produce a total amount 2.4 MtCO2e while protecting 141,000ha of forest in Peru and 1.9M tCO2e for 164,000ha of protected forest in DRC.