Abstract

Development of land-use prediction model for future water resources management
Track: Environmental Management
Authors: Akiyuki Kawasaki, Peter Rogers, Masatsugu Takamatsu

Land-use prediction is one of the biggest planning challenges in the Lower Mekong River Basin because of the rapid and dynamic changes in its economy, society and environment. At various sites in the Lower Mekong River Basin, there are major processes impacting on land-use change, including 1) deforestation of the native rain forest, 2) expansion of agricultural areas, and 3) regrowth of trees such as rubber-tree planting for commercial purposes. We have developed a land-use prediction model to reflect these major processes, using as the study area the 3S sub-basins--a part of the Lower Mekong River Basin including land in Cambodia, Lao PDR and Vietnam. We then used this model to predict the next 20-year land-use change and water demand increase due to agricultural area growth.