Abstract

Spatio-temporal analysis of conflicts events and environmental risk in Sudan
Track: Sustainable Development and Humanitarian Affairs
Authors: Jose Funes

This study aims to explore the spatial and spatio-temporal pattern of conflict intensity in Sudan and how rural development interventions may decrease the risk of conflict. To do so, the paper develops a framework for place-based indicators to capture natural resources endeavors of communities by deriving spatial indicators of physical accessibility to water, schools, forest, and health as potential contributing factors of conflicts events. The study will also explore how conditional on geophysical and economic factors, conflicts diffuse across space and time from their origin while others tend to be regularly spread or forms clusters. The interdependency between low-intensity (e.g. protests, violence against civilians) and high-intensity conflicts between armed groups will also be investigated. The study will ultimately shed some lights on the relationship between environmental risk and conflict by providing research-based evidence on how rural development strategies affecting environmental risk may also build the resilience to conflicts.