Abstract

ICLUS v2: Updates to EPA's Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios
Track: Climate Change
Authors: Phil Morefield, Britta Bierwagen

Understanding the impacts of climate change on humans and the systems upon which they depend requires an understanding of the dynamics of both climate and land use/land cover changes. Rarely, if ever, is the broad range of publically available future climate information matched with logically consistent projections of land use/land cover change. This is a critical barrier to conducting effective integrated assessments. Here we present an updated and improved version of the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) model and datasets. ICLUS v2 utilizes a revised set of county-level population projections, and conversion probabilities of discrete land-use types derived from nationwide aerial photo interpretation, to produce spatially-explicit scenarios of future land-use and impervious surface. Utilizing the geoprocessing functionality of ArcGIS 10, the ICLUS v2 toolset allows users to create a broad range of future land-use realizations for incorporation into analyses of projected global change.