Abstract

Crying Wolf: A Geographic Analysis of Tornado Warnings and Fatalities
Track: Atmosphere, Climate, and Weather
Authors: Mary Passe-Smith

Countless blogs and stories about people in Joplin, Missouri being overwarned for storms to the point of non-action during the May 25, 2011 high-fatality tornado event are circulating on the Internet and elsewhere. It is important that a thorough evaluation of this idea, using GIS methodologies, is in order. I propose to analyze the relationship of fatality 'hotspots' and hotspots of false alarm data, as well as other comparisons with other factors thought to be associated with fatalities, including simple population increases. My time period begins in 2005 in an effort to update and expand upon other works in a time when tornado deaths seem to be on the rise; verification of this problem could demand a change in how/when warnings are currently disseminated.