Abstract

Evaluation of Clue Relativity in Wilderness Search and Rescue
Track: Fire, Rescue, and EMS
Authors: Don Ferguson, Doug Moore

Modern search theory provides a basic framework for managing a lost person incident and relies heavily on information gathered regarding the subject and the environment. The general workflow of search theory dictates planners develop multiple scenarios each having an assigned probability subsequently resulting in the search area being divided into Regions each of which is assigned a Probability of Area or Containment (POA or POC) estimating the subject's location considering subject information, subject behavior, scenario and terrain. Throughout the operation, clues are discovered that may or may not be related to the missing subject. Taken individually these items may appear inconsequential and initially disregarded, however as additional clues are identified patterns may begin to form ultimately leading to the location of the missing subject. This study considers the application of spatial clustering and Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi* statistic) to identify high probability regions for Wilderness Search and Rescue.