Abstract

Analyzing future deforestation in Northern Sumatra, Indonesia
Track: Conservation
Authors: Fabiano Godoy, Hedley Grantham, Hendi Sumantri

The Mandailing Natal region of Northern Sumatra is recognized for its importance for biodiversity but also threatened to rapid conversion from forested land to oil palm and timber plantations.

In this study, we analyzed historical deforestation rates within forestry zoning for the period of 1990-2000-2005-2010. We used GIS to model future deforestation, correlating the historical patterns of forest loss with mobility and biophysical variables under three scenarios: business as usual, considering the rates of deforestation in 2005-2010; using historical averages between 1990 and 2010; and assuming forest conservation in areas protected by law. We also analyzed the influence of forestry zoning in the distribution of deforestation.

Our results showed that 29 Mt of CO2 could potentially be released into the atmosphere from deforestation in the next 10 years under the business as usual scenario. A map was produced of deforestation risk and identified areas for conservation and development investments.