Abstract

Geospatially Forecasting Disorder to Reduce Crime Effectively
Track: Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice
Authors: Steven Armon

The goal is to show areas or hot spots, where conditions are favorable for crime to occur. The model uses a multivariate method which improves the geospatial forecasting effectiveness because it looks at more than just offenses. The variables or indicators show locations where, if the conditions are right, increases the likelihood or probability of victimization, disorder and criminal behavior. Variables or indicators include: Arrests, Calls, Offenses, Gang members, Arrestees, and Parolees. Another variable is time, which was used in two different ways. A 56 day time span for Tactical action (This year current date - 28 days and last year current date +28 days) and a 12 month time span for Strategic action. The identified areas will assist in resource allocation, strategic and tactical action by showing where conditions are favorable for crime to occur in the future.