Abstract

Sea-level and northern elephant seal habitat at Point Reyes California
Track: Climate Change
Authors: ellen hines

Northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) historically experienced a significant population decrease to the brink of extinction due to human exploitation, but have since recovered and re-colonized former breeding/haul-out sites. Point Reyes Peninsula, California, is one location where population increase has resulted in colony expansion. Using geographic information systems, our initial models identified suitable breeding haul-outs and suggested that human disturbance, geomorphology, mean wave height, and slope were important explanatory variables. We then ran three sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, which indicated that most current and potential haul-out sites would largely be inundated by 2050. Because the Point Reyes coast has limited suitable habitat for the seals to colonize, conservation measures may guide management responses to SLR. The resulting analyses can be used to better understand local scale seal responses to SLR and contribute to effective management of pinnipeds within Point Reyes National Seashore and elsewhere.