Abstract

Risk Terrain Modeling for Tactical and Strategic Policing Operations
Track: Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice
Authors: Joel Caplan, Leslie Kennedy, Eric Piza

Risk terrain modeling (RTM) is an approach to spatial risk analysis that standardizes crime risk factors to common geographic units using ArcGIS software. Separate risk map layers are combined in a GIS to produce "risk terrain" maps showing the presence or absence of all risk factors at every location throughout the landscape. RTM 'paints a picture' of place-based environmental contexts that are most suitable for crimes or other hazardous events to occur. It's a statistically valid way to articulate and communicate criminogenic and vulnerable areas at micro-levels. This presentation demonstrates the RTM methodology using ArcMap. RTM can be used for a variety of crime types in different settings; Here we produce a risk terrain map that accurately forecasts locations of aggravated assaults in a Midwestern metropolitan city. Then we tie the practical outcomes of RTM to broader issues on place-based crime forecasting, risk mitigation, and resource allocation strategies.