Abstract

The Lords Resistance Army Analysis - An Update
Track: Defense and Intelligence
Authors: Michael Thomas

An update from 2012 presentation with updated data.

Regional African governments lack the ability to maintain security in LRA afflicted areas and when combined with the remoteness of the area, allows the LRA to continue to demonstrate the ability to survive in this inaccessible region.
Transient populations are often associated with regional conflicts and are referred to as internally displaced persons (IDPs). Predicting them ahead of time is difficult if not impossible. I attempted in September 2011, and have since updated, to document and analyze using spatial statistics, the activities of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in the period of 2011-2013. This analysis is derived from geospatial, unclassified open source intelligence that include open source press statements, academic journals and articles, and international and NGO databases. A successful prediction was actually made.