Abstract

An Audubon Guide to the Future of North American Birds
Track: Climate Change
Authors: Trish Distler, Jorge Velasquez-Tibata, Gary Langham, Justin Schuetz

Climate change will be a dominant selective force in coming decades and is certain to shape the distribution of biodiversity across the planet. Anticipating effects of climate change on species and communities of wildlife is essential if we are to develop coherent conservation strategies. We used large historical datasets generated by citizen scientists to describe the climatic niches and geographic distributions of North American birds. We then made projections into a range of possible future climates, each incorporating different assumptions about CO2 emissions and their effects on climate. Results of our analyses provide spatially-explicit predictions about the effects of climate change on bird distributions. GIS provides the framework for quantifying, displaying, and distributing those results and identifying refugia, or "safe areas", that will persist regardless of future emissions or climate change. We expect that this research will enable development of proactive adaptation strategies for more than 600 species of birds.