Abstract

Factors Affecting Distribution of the Florida Panther in South Florida
Track: Parks, Natural Reserves, Fisheries, and Wildlife Management
Authors: Barry Wood

The Florida panther is restricted to an area in South Florida that is five percent the size of its historic range. A GIS database was created for use in a statistical model to determine the factors affecting the distribution of the Florida panther and to develop a predictive distribution map for resident breeding panthers. The panther radio-telemetry data utilized consisted of 84 adult panthers during the period 1999 to 2009. The characteristics of the occupied area were analyzed and those attributes were used in random forest models. Using 10-fold cross validation, a random forest model was 89 percent accurate in predicting presence or absence of panthers in the study area. These models should be useful for evaluating the impacts of future development and the effects of sea-level rise due to climate change, in prioritizing areas for panther conservation in South Florida, and to identify potential panther habitat outside south Florida.