Abstract

Public Health & Transportation:Projecting Risks With ESRI's Spatial Statistics Tools
Track: Health and Human Services
Authors: kimberly clark

As cities and regions work towards sustainability by enhancing transit infrastructure and increasing population and employment in targeted neighborhoods, a question arises if greater density in urban areas will increase the exposure to cancer risk for a larger number of people, specifically ethnic and racial minority groups. The recent 2012-2035 Regional Transportation Plan and Sustainable Communities Strategy adopted in Southern California serves as a case study to examine projected cancer risks. A four step process involving ESRI's Spatial Statistics Tools (Exploratory Regression, Ordinary Least Squares, Spatial Autocorrelation, and Geographic Weighted Regression) is used to project health risks based upon current and anticipated emissions outputs associated with on-road vehicles. Results show that increased transit infrastructure and targeted growth in transit-oriented neighborhoods reduces the amount of disproportionate health impacts for certain minority groups in future years. Alternatively, the number of persons exposed to higher risk areas is greater in some instances.