Abstract

Uncertainty in FEMA’s Flood Models During Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria
Track: Government
Authors: Jordan Burns

FEMA generates modeled flood extent and depth data during major U.S. flood events. However, these flood models are rarely evaluated as additional ground-truth data becomes available in the months following a disaster. During the 2017 hurricane season, FEMA used newly available flood insurance point data to spatially quantify model uncertainty for three major U.S. hurricanes. Standardized uncertainty metrics can improve FEMA's flood model methodology and communication during future events.