Lisa D. Phillips

Statistical Evaluation of Flooding and Physical Well Characteristics on Wells Failing Chlorination

ABSTRACT

Heavy flooding devastated portions of southwestern Georgia during July of 1994. In the aftermath of these floods, many private water wells tested positive for total coliform bacteria. In many cases, wells remained contaminated following chlorination. Aquifer contamination, poor well construction and maintenance, or damage and contamination due to tributary flooding are possible factors which could have been associated with chlorination failures. The Flood Recovery Program, in collaboration with the Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention, is performing an analysis incorporating GIS and statistical methods to investigate reasons for these chlorination failures. Private wells in an eleven-county area in southwestern Georgia were located using a global positioning system and tested for the presence of coliform bacteria. Information on the construction and maintenance of the individual wells was linked with data on land type and tributary flooding using ArcView GIS 3.0. Preliminary results for one county indicate that wells that remained contaminated following chlorination were 3.2 times more likely to have no cover (shelter or well house) than wells that were successfully decontaminated (95%CI = 1.36 to 7.52) . No other significant associations were seen. Once data collection is completed for the entire study area, data should be sufficient to determine if tributary flooding and well construction characteristics are associated with chlorination failure. In addition, spatial analyses can be done comparing well locations with land type as well as with other geologic characteristics such as soil type and aquifer location.


INTRODUCTION

While public water systems must meet requirements established under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) of 1974, private wells, besides needing to meet initial standards required by the Georgia Water Well Standards Act or 1985, are virtually non-regulated. Consequently, little data exists on contamination of private wells, particularly data measuring how disasters such as floods are associated with prolonged bacterial contamination. Because many households in rural areas depend on a clean water supply for hygiene and consumption, this is of great importance to public health. In 1994 Tropical Storm Alberto ravaged many parts of the Southeast and caused extensive flooding in the Flint and Ocmulgee River basins of southwestern Georgia. In the aftermath of these floods, many private wells tested positive for total coliform bacteria. While it is unknown whether these wells were contaminated prior to the flooding, many of the wells remained contaminated after chlorination. The Flood Recovery Program, in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is performing an analysis incorporating GIS and statistical methods in order to investigate the reasons for these failed chlorinations. Several factors could have contributed to this continued contamination problem: (1) aquifer contamination, (2) damage to wells and contamination due to standing waters along the flooded Flint River and its tributaries, (3) poor well construction/maintenance.

FLOOD RECOVERY PROGRAM

Extremely limited resources were available to meet the immediate and long-term needs that were created by the flooding during July of 1994. In the aftermath of the rains, 55 Georgia counties were declared disaster areas (see Figure 1). In order to address the public health needs that resulted and to develop methods for disaster planning in the future, the Flood Recovery Program was formed with federal assistance through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
DECLARED COUNTIES The objectives of the two-year program were to (1) Assess and address the public health service needs generated by the flood disaster related to environmental health, infectious diseases, child health, chronic conditions, and injury of the 320,000 residents in the 14 counties of the Albany health district, (2) Undertake environmental health activities to identify the remaining concerns produced by flood damage and its aftermath related to well and septic contamination, damage and displacement at known hazardous waste sites, and breeding of disease-causing insects throughout the 55 affected counties, (3) Produce a comprehensive state disaster response field operations manual and conduct training, and (4) Develop the skill capacity of district and local level staff in all parts of Georgia to undertake disaster-response activities related to overall crisis management and emergency response, environmental health concerns, and epidemiologic surveillance as well as provide these staff with both primary data and necessary equipment needed in such activities.
Figure 1. Flood Boundary and Declared Counties in Georgia.

AREA OF CONCENTRATION

One of the areas most damaged by the floods included 11 counties of District 8-2 in the most southwestern portion of the state where the Flint River and its numerous tributaries overflowed their banks (see Figure 2). The 100-year flood stages were exceeded along many portions of the Flint River. For instance, in the Albany area, the flood stage was exceeded by 5.1 feet (1). In this portion of the state, the Upper Floridan aquifer serves as a primary water source for private wells as well as for irrigation and industrial use (2). Because this aquifer is near land surfaces that make it easier for contaminants to reach the aquifer, there is concern of contamination due to flooding. Much of this area uses private wells as a primary water source. Excluding Dougherty County where the city of Albany provides public water for 90% of the households, an average of 52.8% of the households in the remaining 10 counties depend on private well water (3). The percent using private wells ranges from 32.3% in Terrell County to 79% in Baker County. The flooding resulted in a need for massive and widespread well sampling to determine whether contamination with coliform bacteria was a problem. In this concentrated area, thousands of wells were sampled and tested. Because of the widespread sampling done in these counties and the numerous wells failing chlorination, this area was chosen to investigate reasons for chlorination failures.

Figure 2. Area of Concentration.
AREA OF
CONCENTRATION

METHODOLOGY

Sampling and Disinfection Methods

In the aftermath of the flooding, over 6,000 private wells were sampled throughout the 11 county area. Water samples were taken from each well for bacteriological examination using standard methods (4). Samples were tested for presence or absence of coliform bacteria and fecal coliforms using certified laboratory techniques. All positive wells were subsequently disinfected using EPA standard methods with household bleach.

GIS Application

Wells were located using a global positioning system and mapped in ArcView GIS 3.0. This allowed not only for spatial analyses but also created the capacity to plot the wells on detailed maps so that they could be located easily in the future. Information on tributary flooding was obtained from USGS unpublished data. The tributary flooding extent was mapped allowing for a comparison of the well locations to the flooded area. Using this data, a new "flooded well" variable was created which could be controlled for in the statistical analysis. ArcView GIS 3.0 was further used to map land cover data to determine if continued well contamination was correlated with certain types of land characteristics (5). This land cover data which contained information on the entire state of Georgia was converted from a grid to a polygon coverage in ArcInfo 7.0.4. The portion of the coverage containing Calhoun County was clipped out and brought into ArcView GIS 3.0.

Statistical Methods

In order to evaluate possible associations between physical well characteristics and continued well contamination, data was collected from each well site on the following variables: well type, pump type, presence of disinfection unit, well diameter (inches), well depth (feet), distance to septic tank, distance to nitrification field, well construction material, protection from surface drain, seal presence, slab presence, well cover/house, casing cracks, grouting of well, and slope of septic tank from well. Data were analyzed using SAS 6.11 software (SAS Institute, Inc.). Percentage of wells failing chlorination was determined and descriptive statistics were generated indicating frequency of occurrence of variables, central tendency, and variability. Statistical significance was defined as having a p-value less than 0.05. Chi-Square tests and Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to determine associations between possible predictor variables and wells that failed chlorination. Fisher's Exact Test was used for comparisons with expected cell counts less than five. Univariate and multiple logistic regression were used to develop models to control for contamination and 95% confidence intervals were calculated.

PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Preliminary results have been obtained for Calhoun County in Georgia and the following results pertain only to this county. Results shown for this county serve as a model for the flooded area and as an example of how the methodology will be applied on a large-scale basis. Once data collection from all eleven counties is finalized, more in-depth analysis will be available and, due to the increased power of the study, there will be an increase in the ability to find significant associations.

In Calhoun County 543 wells were located by GPS (see Figure 3). Data collection has been completed for 387 of these wells. Of these wells, 173 (45%) tested positive for coliform bacteria, 205 (53%) showed no evidence of contamination, and 9 (2%) were removed from the analysis due to incomplete data.

Figure 3. Well Locations in Calhoun County. WELLS SAMPLED IN CALHOUN COUNTY

Of the 173 wells testing positive for total coliform bacteria, 136 wells were chlorinated and subsequently tested again. These 136 wells serve as the study group for the analyses reported here. Figure 4 shows the number of wells failing chlorination. Of the 136 contaminated wells, 81 (59.6%) wells tested positive for total coliform bacteria after chlorination and 55 (40.4%) showed no contamination after chlorination. Eight (5.9%) of the wells tested positive for fecal coliforms. Twelve (8.8%) of the 136 wells were located in the tributary flooding zone. Eight (9.88%) of the 81 contaminated wells were located in the tributary flooding zone and four (7.27%) of the 55 uncontaminated wells fell in the flooded zone. Information obtained on the entire study area should give sufficient data to determine if the relationship between tributary flooding and well contamination is statistically significant.

Figure 4. Wells Failing Chlorination. WELLS FAILING CHLORINATION

In order to determine if characteristics associated with poorly constructed or maintained wells were associated with well contamination, questionnaires were administered at each site in addition to collection of water samples. These data are summarized in Table 1. This table shows the frequency of occurrence of each variable, the frequency of each according to comtamination status after chlorination, and the probability that an association at least as strong as that seen in the data might have arisen by chance alone. All 136 wells were drilled and 135 (99.3%) had a depth of 100 ft. Because of the lack of variability in these two well characteristics, it could not be determined whether well type or depth were related to well contamination after chlorination. Because well depth tends to vary spatially according to the underlying geologic characteristics, similar well depths for a localized county area can be expected. As more data become available from the other 10 counties, well depth and its relationship with contamination will be able to be analyzed further. Approximately 80% of wells in Georgia are drilled and 90% of wells in this 11 county area are drilled (3). Because such a high percentage of wells are drilled, it is unlikely that that this study will allow an adequate analysis of well type and its possible associations with well contamination. However, information obtained on this variable should give sufficient information to generate hypotheses concerning well type as well as provide a source for further investigation if deemed necessary.

Table 1. Frequencies of Well Characteristics

Well CharacteristicFrequency of Occurence (N=136)Percentage# Contaminated Wells with Well Characteristic (N=81)# Uncontaminated Wells with Well Characteristic (N=55)Prob.
No Seal64.4%4 (4.94%)2 (3.64%)0.779
No Slab7353.7%42 (51.9%)31 (56.4 %)0.606
No Well Cover/House5741.9%39 (48.2%)18(32.7%)0.075
Cracked21.5%2 (2.47%)0 (0.0%)0.353
No Grout85.9%6 (7.41%)2 (3.64%)0.300
Upgrade Septic Tank9066.2%55 (67.9%)35 (63.6%)0.607
Unprotected from Surface Drainage85.9%4 (4.94%)4 (7.27%)0.415
No Disinfection Unit13196.3%77 (95.1%)54 (98.2%)0.325
Construction Material
Steel10879.4%65 (80.3%)43 (78.2%)0.771
PVC2820.6%16 (19.8%)12 (21.8%)
Diameter
Less than 4 Inches85.9% 6 (7.41%)2 (3.64%)0.300
4 or More Inches12894.1%
Pump Type
Jet Pump3324.3%22 (27.2%)11 (20.1%)0.341
Sumersible10375.7%59 (72.8%)44 (80.0%)
Well Depth
100 Feet13599.3%
300 Feet10.7%
Well Type
Drilled136100%

Wells that remained contaminated after chlorination were more likely than uncontaminated wells to have no seal, no grout, an upgrade septic tank, and a jet pump. However, none of these associations showed statistical significance. The variable "No well cover/house" was marginally significant with a p-value of 0.07. No significant differences were seen between type of construction material or diameter. The small numbers associated with several of these variables could have prevented real associations from resulting.

In order to determine if land type was associated with continued well contamination, land data was integrated into the well characteristic data base using ArcView GIS 3.0. Figure 5 shows a portion of Calhoun County demonstrating well locations in relation to land type. These data are also summarized in Table 2.

Figure 5. Example of Well Locations in Relation to Land Type in Central Calhoun County. WELLS LOCATIONS IN RELATION TO LAND TYPE IN
CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY

Table 2. Frequencies of Wells for Each Land Type

Land TypeFrequency (N=136)Percent# Contaminated Wells in Each Land Classification# Uncontaminated Wells in Each Land ClassificationProb.
Clear Cut/Young Pine64.3%4 (4.82%)2 (3.64%)0.547
Pasture2820.3%18 (21.7%)10 (18.2%)0.616
Cultivated/Exposed Earth7655.1%47 (56.6%)29 (52.7%)0.652
Urban32.2%1 (1.2%)2 (3.64%)0.349
Wetland32.2%2 (2.41%)1 (1.82%)0.651
Forest2014.5%9 (10.9%)11 (20.0%)0.135

The majority of the well points were located in areas classified as cultivated/exposed earth, pasture, and forest. Contaminated wells were not significantly more frequent in any one land classification compared to all others combined. Once data collection is completed for the remaining ten counties in the study area, spatial analyses can be done comparing well locations with land type as well as with other geologic characteristics such as soil type and aquifer location.

Univariate and multiple logistic regression were used to determine odds ratios measuring the relationship between the predictor variables and chlorination failure. In the univariate analysis, none of the predictor variables were significantly associated with continued well contamination. For the multivariate analysis, models were developed to control for bias due to confounding. Results of this analysis are shown in Table 3. An initial model was fit which contained all predictor variables related to well construction, flooding, and land type. The inclusion of the variables no seal, cracked, no grout, diameter, and no disinfection unit did not change the outcome of the model and were removed. Similarly, all land type variables except pasture were removed from the model. The rest of the predictor variables were retained in the model in order to control for confounding. Controlling for all other variables, wells that remained contaminated after chlorination were 3.2 times more likely to have no well cover/house than those which were not contaminated (p=0.008). Having a jet pump was marginally significant with a p-value of 0.077. Contaminated wells were 2.3 times as likely to have a jet pump rather than a submersible pump. None of the other variables were significantly associated with failure of wells to clear after chlorination.

Table 3. Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis.

Predictor VariableContaminated WellsUncontaminated WellsOdds Ratio95% Confidence IntervalP-value
No Well Cover/House48%33%3.1961.36 to 7.520.0078
Pasture22%19%1.8130.68 to 4.840.235
Tributary Flooded Zone10%7%0.9640.24 to 3.820.959
Pump Type (Jet pump)27%20%2.3440.91 to 6.030.077
No Slab52%57%0.5460.24 to 1.240.146
No Disinfection Unit95%98%0.2340.02 to 2.470.227
Upgrage Septic Tank68%64%1.300.55 to 3.090.548
No Drainage Protection5%7%0.4070.068 to 2.430.324
Construction Material (Steel) 80%78%1.250.48 to 3.200.649

DISCUSSION

Poor well construction or local contamination problems of the ground water generally cause localized bacterial contamination of private wells. Bacterial contamination of aquifers is rare. However, concerns that the flood could have contaminated the ground water or the aquifer in this area arose when large numbers of wells in the flooded counties remained contaminated after chlorination. A state-wide private well-water survey is in its initial stages of data collection and will hopefully allow for a comparison of the entire flooded region to other portions of the state. This could add evidence as to whether or not the aquifer is contaminated. The average chlorination failure rate in other parts of Georgia or other portions of the country is currently unknown so the state-wide survey should give an indication as to whether the failure rate seen in the flooded counties is unusual. In comparison to the current study, this state-wide survey will obtain additional information on sources of contamination and well construction for individual wells. In addition, MPN coliform counts and nitrate levels will be obtained.

The preliminary results of this study suggest that continually contaminated wells are significantly more likely to be uncovered (without a shelter or well house) than are wells easily cleared of contamination by chlorination. When data collection is completed for the entire study area, the data should allow a more precise evaluation of how well characteristics and tributary flooding are associated with continued contamination of wells. Only flooding along rivers and tributaries can be easily measured. Many areas in the flooded counties received large amounts of rainfall and were subject to standing water and surface run-off and are not included in the tributary flooding zone. If results show that wells in the tributary flooding zone are no more likely to be continually contaminated than wells not in the tributary flooding zone, then precautions to secure and protect wells may be needed in these areas as well as in areas along rivers and tributaries. This could add evidence of aquifer contamination as well.

One limiting factor in the study concerns confounding factors that could not be controlled for in the present analysis. Individual wells are subject to varying local sources of contamination. Because this study developed in the aftermath of a serious and immediate public health need to decontaminate wells, this data could not be collected. The wells sampled were also not a random sample of wells in the area but were sampled because of fears local residents had of contamination. This could have resulted in an artificially high percentage of contaminated wells, however, large numbers of wells located throughout the study area were sampled. It is not likely that these wells were different with regard to well construction and maintenance from wells that were not tested. Because wells were sampled in all areas of the counties, it is also unlikely that flooding differed greatly between sampled and unsampled wells.

Natural disasters such as floods can cause severe devastation and affect virtually everyone in some way. Because large numbers of persons in rural areas use private wells as their primary source of drinking water, contamination caused by flooding is a public health problem. Data obtained from this study and from the state-wide survey should give needed information on the relationships of well construction and flooding with well contamination and chlorination failure. This knowledge could be used to prevent future flood-induced well contamination and to indicate areas in which prevention resources can be used most efficiently.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This analysis described in this paper was developed and supported 100% by federal funds from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention grant U1Q/CCU411900-01. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not represent the official views of CDC.

REFERENCES

1. Stamey TC. "Summary of data-collection activities and effects of flooding Tropical Storm Alberto in parts of Georgia, Alabama, and Florida, July 1994." U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 96-228. 1995.

2. Hicks DW, Gill HE, and Longsworth SA. "Hydrogeology, chemical quality, and availability of ground water in the Upper Floridan aquifer, Albany area, Georgia." U.S. Geological Survey, Water-Resources Investigations Report 87-4145. 1987.

3. U.S. Census Data, 1990

4. Freedman B. Sanitarian's Handbook - Theory and Administrative Practice for Environmental Health. 1977.

5. Landcover classification of Georgia 1988-1990. Georgia Department of Natural Resources. U.S. Geological Survey, 1995.


Lisa D. Phillips
Environmental Epidemiologist
Flood Recovery Program
DHR, Division of Public Health
2 Peachtree Street
Atlanta, GA 30303
Telephone: (404)657-0601
Fax: (404)657-0602
E-mail: ldp0600@ph.dhr.state.ga.us