Track: Ecology, Conservation, and Archaeology
Predicting the Threat of Population Growth on California's Riparian Hardwoods
Kaylene KellerMike McCoy , Dr. James Quinn
The largest threat to California's hardwoods is development. As county populations increase, more people are moving into the hardwoods range. In this study, we used ARC GRID to analyze the lack of resource-oriented growth management policies on the potentially affected areas of riparian hardwoods. By combining riparian information and biodiversity protection status, the areas most susceptible to development were determined. Once the areas that could be developed were identified and the growth rates were forecast, we then determined the threat from growth. Using population projections and standard land consumption formulas the projected amount of land to be developed was calculated. The projected land needs of cities were added to the existing city areas. To determine the impact of rural growth, ARC GRID cells equal to the amount of rural growth were randomly selected, as dictated by a "no policy" alternative, from the land identified as possibly developable. The potential amount of riparian impacted by growth was then determined.
Kaylene Keller
Information Center for the Environment
1 Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616
USA
Telephone: 530-754-6051
Fax: 530-752-3350
E-mail: kekeller@ucdavis.edu