Track: Agriculture
Development of a Population-Based Water Use Model for the St. Johns River Water Management District
Richard DotyFlorida's rapidly growing population requires thoughtful planning for prospective growth. In light of Florida's limited water resources, planning for water demand is essential to meeting the State's water needs in the future. The St. Johns River Water Management District (SJRWMD) is charged with this task for the rapidly growing region of east central and northeast Florida. The SJRWMD requires accurate estimates of future population growth to estimate the future demand for water. A GIS is an invaluable tool for planning of this type. It allows massive amounts of data to be collected and analyzed, performing tasks that would be impossible without such a system. For example, each square mile section in Orange County may be modeled separately, and the results can be aggregated to the service areas of water utilities. This would be a monumental task without a GIS. The model developed during this project distributes the county population estimates of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research into square mile sections for each of the nineteen counties within the SJRWMD. It does this by calculating a weighted average of the growth rate (from 1981 through 1990) of each section and factoring in the positive influence of spatial features such as roads, water bodies, and existing residential and commercial areas. It then excludes undevelopable lands including wetlands, conservation areas, inappropriate land uses, road rights-of-way, and areas that have already reached their maximum allowable density, or are "built out." The remaining areas are allocated population growth by section according to the section's growth rate and proximity to spatial influences. This growth by section is then summarized by water utility service area for comparison with utility estimates. These estimates are used in water projection models used by the SJRWMD.
Richard Doty
GeoFocus, Inc.
1155 NW 13th Street
Gainesville, FL 32601-4137
USA
Telephone: (352)336-8444 ext.15
Fax: (352)336-6822
E-mail: richdoty@gfocus.com