A new model for predicting the probability of occurrence of spatial-temporal criminal events is described based on the theory of point patterns. The model allows for the incorporation of observed criminal event characteristics or features into space-time prediction. A search technique identifies those features of the crimes that are most useful in predicting future events. Based on the presence of these features in a given area, a GIS is used to display the probability surfaces showing likely areas for future criminal events.
Donald Edward Brown
University of Virginia
Thornton Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA22903
Telephone: 804-924-5393
Fax: 804-982-2972