Philip J. Schneider





HAZUS®, A GIS-BASED MULTIHAZARD LOSS ESTIMATION SOFTWARE PROGRAM





State and local communities and private organizations across the nation are using HAZUS®, a user-friendly, geographic information system (GIS) based software product, to reduce their risk from natural disasters. HAZUS® was developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through a cooperative agreement with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS). HAZUS® contains a standardized, nationally applicable earthquake loss estimation methodology, operates on a commercial GIS platform, either MapInfo or ArcView, and is available on CD-ROM. HAZUS® produces loss estimations that calculate potential damage to buildings and lifelines, casualties, shelter requirements, debris generated, and direct and indirect economic loss from earthquakes. Flood and hurricane modules are also under development.



Loss estimates calculated with HAZUS® are intended to be used by local, state, and regional officials for planning and stimulating mitigation efforts to reduce losses before earthquakes occur, and preparing for emergency response and recovery following earthquakes. Secondarily, the loss estimates will be the basis for a nationwide assessment of the earthquake risk, and will provide a basis for allocating national resources for future disasters. Before HAZUS® was developed, appropriate planning for earthquakes was not feasible because generating earthquake risk assessments was a formidable task requiring expensive consultants and considerable time.



The development of HAZUS® is supported by FEMA's leadership role in developing a comprehensive national mitigation strategy that includes hazard identification and risk assessment for communities throughout the United States. HAZUS® is an important tool in FEMA's Project Impact, a national initiative to reduce losses and make communities 'disaster resistant' through public and private sector cooperation. Developed by FEMA Director James Lee Witt, Project Impact challenges local communities throughout the country to reduce the effects of natural disasters by undertaking mitigation activities that protect families, businesses and communities. Without mitigation, the increasing number and severity of natural disasters threaten economic stability and the future safety of U.S. citizens.



HAZUS® stands for HAZARDS U.S. The software utilizes GIS technology to produce detailed maps and analytical reports that describe a community's potential losses. Emergency managers from the 50 states and all U.S. Territories have been trained to use HAZUS®. HAZUS® has been sent to more than 700 users, divided almost evenly between public and private organizations. Additionally, several foreign countries are using HAZUS® as a model for their own development of an earthquake loss estimation product.



Earthquake Model



HAZUS® is a tool for collecting inventory data and making estimates of possible losses from earthquakes developed by Risk Management Solutions, Inc. of Menlo Park, California. Major features are a substantial default inventory data base, census tract level of resolution, classification systems for buildings and lifelines, data on geology including the location and size of potential earthquake hazards, mathematical formulas for calculating damage and loss, and economic data. HAZUS® displays inventory, damage, and loss data in summary tables and full-color maps.



HAZUS® may be used at three levels of complexity.





A computer-based tutorial to demonstrate the software, an inventory collection tool called InCast, and supplemental multihazard databases for each state are all available on CD-ROM. A user's manual describes how to perform loss estimates, and a technical manual in three volumes describes the technical and engineering theory behind the methodology. Technical support for HAZUS® users by telephone and FEMA and NIBS web pages for HAZUS® have also been established.



HAZUS® is being updated and improved. The newest version, HAZUS99®, is scheduled to be issued in Fall 1999. HAZUS99® will be linked to a network of sensors in California known as TRI-NET. In an actual earthquake event, HAZUS® will automatically receive data on the event from TRI-NET and run an analysis based on that data. These results will represent FEMA's first official estimates of damage and loss.



Wind and Flood Models



HAZUS® is being expanded to perform similar loss evaluations for floods, hurricanes, tornados, coastal storm surge, severe winter storms, thunderstorms, and hail. FEMA and NIBS initiated development of the wind and flood models in 1997 with the creation of two committees to oversee technical development of the models. Consultants were then selected in 1998 to begin methodology development. The HAZUS® software is envisioned as an integrated multihazard loss estimation program, capable of running loss analyses from a GIS platform.



The wind and flood models will allow practitioners to estimate economic and social losses from floods and extreme winds. The information provided by HAZUS® will assist state and local officials with planning for, and evaluating, the potential effects of mitigation on flooding and flood loss, and damage and loss from hurricanes and other extreme winds. The models will provide practitioners and policy makers a tool to help reduce disaster payments, and make wise use of the nation's floodplains.



Initial model development was completed in early 1999. For the flood model, this included an assessment of the state-of-the-art of flood loss estimation studies, data, and ongoing research. Alternative flood loss estimation methodologies viewed as most promising were tested in six communities having a variety of flooding conditions, recent experience with flooding, good data sets and mapping. The most feasible alternative method was selected and will be further developed into the flood loss estimation methodology in subsequent project phases. The flood model is being developed by EQE International, of San Francisco, California, with Michael Baker, Inc., of Alexandria, Virginia.

On the wind side, the initial phase focused on one hazard (hurricanes) and included development of the physical damage and direct loss framework for buildings and facilities. A regional loss study that included computing direct losses and property damage for Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties in South Florida was also completed in the initial phase. This approach demonstrated the vision of the wind loss methodology for hurricanes and provided the first steps for its eventual full development and HAZUS® implementation. Additional work will be carried in future phases to complete and finalize the hurricane hazard-damage-loss model. The wind model is being developed by Applied Research Associates of Raleigh, North Carolina.



In 2002, FEMA intends to release Preview Models for flood and hurricane to FEMA Project Impact communities. This initial release will be limited to Atlantic and Gulf Coast hurricanes and riverine and coastal flooding. The model will compute estimates of potential damage to residential, commercial, and industrial buildings, direct economic losses, and shelter requirements.

Inventory data collection modules will be released in 2001 to facilitate data gathering by local communities in advance of the release of the Preview Models.



HAZUS® Initiatives



Major initiatives using HAZUS® are underway at agencies in the New York Metropolitan Area, the San Francisco Bay Area, Oregon and Vermont. The following descriptions have been adapted from the HAZUS® website and the Bay Area HAZUS Project website.



New York State Emergency Management Office: A multiyear collaborative effort with FEMA Region II is underway to undertake a New York City Metropolitan Area Earthquake Loss Estimation Study using HAZUS®. Participants include the New York State Emergency Management Office, New Jersey State Office of Emergency Management, New York City Mayor's Office of Emergency Management, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York State Geological Survey and the New Jersey State Geological Survey.



Preliminary work has consisted of HAZUS® earth science data development that includes compiling geological information from borings, geophysical measurements and other sources pertinent to defining seismic site response in the NYC metropolitan area. This raw data will be translated into seismic shear wave impedance profiles and ultimately into HAZUS® soil categories.



Inventory collection strategies have included comparisons of State and City databases to HAZUS® default data sets to ensure the most comprehensive and accurate information is utilized in the study. In addition, to increase the accuracy of the study region map boundary lines created by HAZUS® the study will utilize improved digital map files without affecting the program's functionality.



First year work activities have consisted of conducting a benchmark study utilizing the HAZUS® default data to monitor the variation in results as improved inventory and earth science data are incorporated. This benchmark study included a comparison of results with a pre-HAZUS study, "Estimation of Earthquake Losses for a Large Eastern Urban Center: Scenario Events for New York City," by Scawthorn and Harris, EQE Engineering. Damage estimates from both this and the HAZUS® study for scenario events located at the 1884 earthquake epicenter were comparable.



Since the NYS Emergency Management Office's GIS and the NYC's GIS are ARC/INFO and ArcView based, the New York City Metro Area Earthquake Loss Estimation Study utilizes the version of HAZUS® compatible with the ArcView platform.



Recognizing the need to increase awareness of the HAZUS® program, the New York State Emergency Management Office has provided demonstrations of the software at several emergency management related conferences.



California Office of Emergency Services: The state of California's OES earthquake program began working with HAZUS® in the spring of 1995 in the coastal region office. The main purpose of this activity is to provide an unofficial testing of HAZUS® at the user level and continuing support for raising the level of data for input into HAZUS® for the bay area. In support of the Bay Area HAZUS Users Group and with guidance from local members of a HAZUS Project Working Group, OES staff has started the process of collecting built-environment data for certain cities in the East Bay Area. Work with the cities of Berkeley, Oakland, and San Leandro will serve as a pilot project to examine the processes of collecting data on general building stock and user-defined databases for specific building types and uses. The goal of this pilot is to learn the lessons needed to collect enough data from East Bay cities to perform a sophisticated analysis of losses resulting from a Hayward fault earthquake.



As a priority, geologic data is being collected for modeling earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area due to the quantity of soft soils. An effort has been undertaken to acquire this data for use with HAZUS®. Information was drawn from USGS digital maps (available on the Internet) of the geology of the San Francisco Bay Area and Contra Costa County and from existing paper maps produced by the California Division of Mines and Geology.



Early in the program, a number of maps were produced for internal use and, in some cases, provided to other jurisdictions to assist in hazard mitigation efforts. The following is a list of some of the maps accompanied by brief descriptions of the projects for which the maps were produced.



1) Projected Peak Ground Acceleration for Possible Earthquakes Near Parkfield: In anticipation of the next event along the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault, OES has used HAZUS® to create a reference map used in the development of a response plan to a variety of Parkfield scenarios. The map was made without specific geologic data for the region and importation of specific data is intended for inclusion in the final plan.



2) Peak Ground Acceleration for M7.5 on Sierra Madre Fault: This map was made to aid a presentation to the American Institute of Architects (AIA) Facility Workshop on Seismic Design.



3) Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) for an Earthquake on the Northern Hayward Fault (for City of Berkeley) and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for an Earthquake on the Northern Hayward Fault (for City of Richmond): These two maps were created to show effects of what could be California's most devastating potential disaster: a major earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The maps, in conjunction with presentations by various experts, were shown to the city councils of Berkeley and Richmond to illustrate the position of their respective cities in relation to the regional impact. The Berkeley map, in conjunction with other presentations, was helpful in inspiring the council to pass a measure authorizing the retrofit of Berkeley City Hall.



4) Rodgers Creek (M 7.2) and San Jacinto (M7.0) Earthquake Peak Ground Acceleration and Bridge Status: There is an ongoing effort between interested agencies and organizations to create a Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse. Meetings have been organized by OES, the lead agency, to clarify what the roles, responsibilities, and expectations of the various contributing organizations would be following an earthquake. During one of these meetings, a tabletop exercise was held using HAZUS®, maps to indicate potential post earthquake conditions for the exercise scenario quake. The maps were used to show the value of HAZUS® in planning for the types of logistical problems related to post event site access that were evident from the exercise maps.



5) Housing Loss and Needs for Hayward Fault Earthquake: OES has been working with the American Institute of Architects(AIA) to sponsor "charettes" where architects participate in a weekend, hands-on workshop to design long-term shelters in the Tenderloin region of San Francisco. A map was generated using HAZUS® to provide an overview of regional impacts to housing caused by the scenario earthquake.



6) Maps for City of San Francisco Exercise: Repeat of 1848 Hayward Event: Thirteen maps were developed to aid an exercise conducted by the San Francisco Emergency Management staff based on a repeat of the 1848 South Hayward Fault event. Maps generated included PGA and PGV, displaced households, critical facilities, bridge functionality, debris quantity, demographics, damage to commercial and residential structures, and casualties.



San Francisco Bay Area: The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Region IX with support from the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services (OES) has invested in a two-year public/private alliance to create a comprehensive regional, earthquake risk assessment for the greater (11 counties) San Francisco Bay Area. Under the Bay Area HAZUS Risk Assessment Capabilities Project, a diverse, yet comprehensive, user group is preparing to improve earthquake preparedness and mitigation decisions as well as response and recovery operations. This effort is an extension of FEMA's Project Impact program.



The goals for the Bay Area HAZUS Risk Assessment Capabilities Project are:





So far, the following pilot projects have been initiated in the eleven counties in the San Francisco Bay Area.



1) Sonoma County HAZUS Pilot Project Proposal: This pilot project for Sonoma County intends to introduce HAZUS® to the county for evaluating risks due to earthquakes. Sonoma County has a population of approximately 450,000 and an area of approximately 1,600 square miles, much of which is uninhabited and for which there is no data or very little of any practical use. Fortunately, available data exists for the populated areas along the Highway 101 corridor running through the county from the south to the north. The primary goal of this project is to facilitate seismologists, structural engineers, geologists, and others in making continual improvements to the HAZUS® databases, as information becomes available. This process will increase the validity of program runs and improve the accuracy of earthquake risk analysis for Sonoma County. It is anticipated that HAZUS® runs will be made in the early stages of the HAZUS® implementation using default data or other available data until such time as more reliable data become available.



2) City and County of San Francisco HAZUS Pilot Project: The San Francisco Department of Public Works/Office of Geographic Data Services has been approached by FEMA to be a local government representative for testing the HAZUS® application. FEMA would like San Francisco to participate with other public-private agencies in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area in a coordinated effort to create a more earthquake-resistant community in terms of emergency management before, during and after the next regional earthquake.



The purpose of this effort is to create a multilevel environment for sharing accurate HAZUS® data and undertaking mitigation actions to correct potential threats to public safety in San Francisco. The intended use of the San Francisco base map and City data is to strengthen the HAZUS® model in order to create a comprehensive San Francisco earthquake risk assessment. With this information, the City can improve earthquake preparedness and mitigation decisions as well as response and recovery operations.



Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI): Oregon's state geology agency has recently used HAZUS® to assess potential casualties in Oregon from a large earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone. This zone runs along the Oregon coast and has produced earthquakes in the past up to a magnitude nine. In such earthquakes, most deaths are from the collapse of buildings or from tsunami waves. According to the authors, the study represents a very rough estimate of potential casualties from such an earthquake. More information is required concerning the number of vulnerable buildings and the level of preparedness inside the tsunami inundation zones.



Portland METRO Emergency Planning Program: In March 1997, HAZUS® maps were used in a mitigation planning workshop to initiate the development of a regional natural hazards mitigation plan for the Portland Metro region. The maps were useful in facilitating discussions of potential earthquake-related hazard mitigation measures, impediments to implementing mitigation measures, identifying potential solutions to overcome the impediments, and determining roles and responsibilities for implementation.



State of Vermont Division of Emergency Management: An interagency work group has been organized to explore ways that HAZUS® can be used to facilitate joint agency efforts to collect and build a more effective database. Specifically, the intent is to test HAZUS® as a method for defining the earthquake hazard in soft soils in Vermont and plan mitigation in vulnerable areas. New soft soil mapping from Burlington will be integrated into HAZUS®. Upgraded outputs for Burlington will be used to support mitigation. The Burlington experience will be used to develop an approach to mapping that can be employed in other cities and towns.

Additional HAZUS® Initiatives



In a HAZUS® evaluation conducted in Fall 1998, other examples of HAZUS® applications in the states were identified.



Specific HAZUS® activities identified include:



Mitigation planning - assisting in surveying surficial geology, land-use planning based on liquefaction and ground shaking, building and housing code modifications, facility siting, structural evaluation and building strengthening.



Emergency preparedness - planning for hospitals and hospitals beds, transportation and utility continuity, police protection and shelter provision.



Response & recovery - identifying damaged areas, planning operations decisions and conducting exercises.



The users in the evaluation are represented by eight kinds of public organizations, five kinds of private organizations and nine different disciplines.





Conclusion



Two major metropolitan areas and a number of other significant sites are using HAZUS® for planning mitigation, emergency preparedness and response and recovery. As data is collected and HAZUS® studies are produced and disseminated, other state and localities will observe the benefits of using HAZUS® and initiate their own studies and supporting consortiums. To encourage these efforts, FEMA and NIBS intend to acquire descriptions of existing and new examples of HAZUS® usage and periodically post them on the FEMA and NIBS web sites.



References



Bay Area HAZUS Project, HAZUS User Group, www.hazus.org, 1999.



National Institute of Building Sciences, HAZUS® Evaluation Results, unpublished.



National Institute of Building Sciences, NIBSnet, www.nibs.org, 1999.





Author Information



Philip J. Schneider



Director, Multihazard Loss Estimation Program

National Institute of Building Sciences

1090 Vermont Avenue, N.W.

Washington, D.C. 20005

Tel: 202-289-7800

Fax: 202-289-1092

Email: pschneider@nibs.org