Abstract
Risk Terrains: Theoretically and Empirically Grounded Spatial Models for Tactical Decision Making
Track: Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice
Author
Imagine a "risk terrain" as a weather map. But instead of forecasting the likelihood
of rain, it forecasts areas with the greatest potential for public safety threats to occur. Just as a meteorologist incorporates multiple factors when creating a weather map, so too must a criminologist consider multiple factors when creating a risk terrain. When such factors intersect in space and time do they have the greatest potential to yield a particular outcome.
The research reported here applies risk terrains as a forecasting approach to gang related shootings. We demonstrate how effective forecasting can be achieved by the application of some intuitively simple principles within the analytical reach of crime analysts. Results suggest that risk terrain maps provide a statistically significant forecast of future shootings and produce information that can be operationalized by police administrators easily and efficiently, such as for directing police patrols to coalesced high risk areas.
Joel Caplan
Rutgers University
School of Criminal Justice
123 Washington Street
Newark, New Jersey 07102
United States
Phone: 973-353-1304
E-mail: jcaplan@newark.rutgers.edu
Leslie Kennedy
Rutgers University School of Criminal Justice
123 Washington Street
Newark, New Jersey 07102
United States
Phone: 973-353-3310
E-mail: kennedy@newark.rutgers.edu