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Abstract
Using a GIS to Forecast the Diffusion of Drug MisuseTrack: Modeling
Author(s): Ken Field, Heath Heatlie, Martin Frischer
Current methods for estimating the incidence, prevalence, and spread of drug misuse tend to be retrospective and are not capable of forecasting spatio-temporal trends. Mapping of drug misuse is therefore restricted to displays of incidence and prevalence rates. This paper details the development of a GIS drug misuse system to create a dynamic model for forecasting and displaying spatiotemporal trends and linking environment with behavior. It includes a range of parameters to model drug misuse and its geographic spread across a population using data for the United Kingdom as a basis for developing a European-wide forecasting system. The GIS approach reported here provides the basis for examining more complex geographic diffusion scenarios such as the introduction of new practices by new users, the development of education and remedial initiatives, impacts of tourism and migration, cross-border contact, drug transportation, and increasing opportunities for economic and international contact.
Ken Field
University College Northampton
Park Campus
Boughton Green Road
Northampton, Northamptonshire NN2 7AL
England
Phone: 00 44 1604 7665
E-mail: ken.field@northampton.ac.uk